Water Demand Forecasting

September 18, 2024 | Online :: Central Time

0924-water-demand-forecasting

Water utilities face the challenge of accurately forecasting and planning for future water demand. Inaccurate demand projections can lead to inefficient water resource allocation, supply shortages, and compromised service delivery. Without robust demand planning strategies, utilities may struggle to meet the needs of growing populations, changing consumption patterns, and emerging challenges such as climate change and water scarcity.

The EUCI Water Demand Forecasting course offers insights and solutions to address the challenges associated with forecasting and planning for water demand. This course equips professionals with the knowledge, skills, and tools necessary to develop accurate and reliable demand projections. Participants will learn various demand forecasting methodologies, including statistical analysis, modeling techniques, and data-driven approaches such as:

• Time series analysis
• Regression analysis
• Machine learning models

The course will also cover the challenges and limitations associated with water demand forecasting and provide participants with the skills needed to develop effective water demand management strategies.

Learning Outcomes

• Utilize demand forecasting methodologies to generate accurate and reliable water demand projections
• Assess challenges and limitations associated with water demand forecasting to ensure more precise and reliable forecasts
• Align demand projections with resource availability to optimize operational efficiency, and mitigate the impacts of climate change and water scarcity
• Leverage statistical analysis, modeling techniques, and data-driven approaches to improve forecasting outcomes and inform decision-making processes
• Justify the importance of accurate water demand forecasting to ensure efficient resource allocation

Wednesday, September 18, 2024 : Central Time

 

Introduction to Water Demand Forecasting

• Overview of water demand forecasting
• Key concepts and terminology
• Short-, medium-, and long-term demand forecasts

Incorporating Water Demand Forecasts Throughout a Utility

• Identifying internal customers
• Time horizons for demand forecasts
  • Benefits and challenges from varying forecast horizons
  • Risk and uncertainty
  • Appropriate application of different forecasts throughout the organization
  • Scenario planning vs. stochastic forecasting

Demand Drivers for Water Use

• Land use and customer class
• Climate, weather, and landscape choices
• Socioeconomic trends
• Different drivers and opposite impacts dependent on time horizon

Challenges with Water Use Forecasting

• Data availability and limitations
• Technical expertise in statistical modeling
• Seasonal variations and unpredictable weather patterns
• Inability to accurately forecast water use drivers

Trend Analysis and Land-Based Modeling

• Integration of GIS into long-term planning
• GPCD and time trend analysis
• Limitations and shortcomings

Econometric Modeling

• Review of key concepts and methodology
• Econometric forecasting for treatment plants and distribution system
• Econometric forecasting for long term planning
• Integration of econometric modeling with scenario planning
• Limitations and shortcomings

Introduction to Machine Learning

• Overview of fundamental concepts and terminology
• Data preparation and model selection
• Supervised learning algorithms
• Deep learning and neural networks
• Benefits and drawbacks of machine learning compared to econometric modeling

Modeling and Analysis of Water Demand Management Strategies

• Non-structural solutions:
  • Conservation, drought restrictions, emergency demand management, and peak shaving
• Modeling challenges
• Benefits of implementation

Ryan Shepler, Lead Demand Planner, Denver Water

Ryan Shepler is a Lead Demand Planner at Denver Water.  At Denver Water, he conducts technical modeling and analysis of customer water use to inform decisions across the organization from financial forecasts to long-term planning decisions.  While at Denver Water, he has incorporated econometric forecasting into day-to-day operations and has led the implementation of demand management strategies that decrease the dependence of additional infrastructure.

Prior to Denver Water, he spent several years working for WestWater Research, a water resource economics consulting firm.  While there he improved an econometric forecasting model that estimated water rights prices, and developed a hydro-economic model that evaluated the costs and benefits of agricultural best management practices. 

He has a master’s degree in Agricultural and Resource Economics, where his research focused on the socio-economic factors influencing groundwater use and the adoption of sustainable groundwater management policies.

We will be using Microsoft Teams to facilitate your participation in the upcoming event. You do not need to have an existing Teams account in order to participate in the broadcast – the course will play in your browser and you will have the option of using a microphone to speak with the room and ask questions, or type any questions in via the chat window and our on-site representative will relay your question to the instructor.

• Microsoft recommends downloading and installing the Teams app if possible. You may also use the Edge browser or Chrome.
• You will receive a separate email with a unique link to a personalized landing page which will include links to join all sessions of this event.
• If you are using a microphone, please ensure that it is muted until such time as you need to ask a question.
• The remote meeting connection will be open approximately 30 minutes before the start of the course. We encourage you to connect as early as possible in case you experience any unforeseen problems.

Please Note: This event is being conducted entirely online. All attendees will connect and attend from their computer, one connection per purchase. For details please see our FAQ

If you are unable to attend at the scheduled date and time, we make recordings available to all attendees for 7 days after the event

REGISTER NOW FOR THIS EVENT:

Water Demand Forecasting

September 18, 2024 | Online

Your registration may be transferred to a member of your organization up to 24 hours in advance of the event. Cancellations must be received on or before August 16, 2024 in order to be refunded and will be subject to a US $195.00 processing fee per registrant. No refunds will be made after this date. Cancellations received after this date will create a credit of the tuition (less processing fee) good toward any other EUCI event. This credit will be good for six months from the cancellation date. In the event of non-attendance, all registration fees will be forfeited. In case of conference cancellation, EUCIs liability is limited to refund of the event registration fee only. For more information regarding administrative policies, such as complaints and refunds, please contact our offices at 303-770-8800

Credits

EUCI is accredited by the International Accreditors for Continuing Education and Training (IACET) and offers IACET CEUs for its learning events that comply with the ANSI/IACET Continuing Education and Training Standard. IACET is recognized internationally as a standard development organization and accrediting body that promotes quality of continuing education and training.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 0.7 CEUs for this event

Requirements for Successful Completion of Program

Participants must be logged on and in attendance for the entirety of the course

Instructional Methods

Power Point presentations, open discussion, examples and explanation will be used

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Upon successful completion of this event, program participants interested in receiving CPE credits will receive a certificate of completion.

Course CPE Credits: 7.5
There is no prerequisite for this Course.
Program field of study: Specialized Knowledge
Program Level: Basic
Delivery Method: Group Internet Based
Advanced Preparation: None

EUCI is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its web site: www.nasbaregistry.org

 

Who Should Attend

• Water utility managers and engineers
• Municipal planners and consultants
• Environmental engineers and consultants
• Government officials responsible for water supply management
• Urban developers and construction professionals
• Water resource managers and consultants
• Regulatory agency staff involved in water supply planning and management
• Researchers and academics in the field of water resources management