PPA Valuation & Pricing Best Practices

Financial and Risk Dimensions that Influence the Value and Pricing of PPAs

January 23-24, 2024 | Online :: Central Time

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“A valuable course for beginners and highly experienced solar players.”  Attorney, NextGen Solar Energy

“EUCI is interested not just in teaching industry topics, but also encouraging education for both sellers and buyers through facilitated discussion, allowing attendees to share experiences and learn from each other’s perspectives.” Director – Asset Management, Invenergy

“The course provided an excellent overview of PPA seller strategies and buyer considerations. The speakers were top-notch industry thought leaders and addressed practical questions raised by the attendees.”  Vice President, AC Power LLC

“Informative webinars that are packed with good information and are moderated well.” NextEra Project Director

This course provides a methodical review of financial and risk elements that influence the value of renewable energy power purchase agreements (PPAs).  It will explore the many layers of financial considerations that confer value in these PPA contracts for power.  It will look at the dependent relationships that often make the difference between a PPA that accomplishes its objectives over an extended period versus one that can disappoint almost immediately.  

Our expert instructors will review and demonstrate multiple analyses and methodologies that provide important financial and risk guidance in the structuring of PPAs for project developers, off-takers, investors, lenders and other transaction parties.  

Learning Outcomes   

• Review the fundamental financial components of PPA
• Examine the underlying risk factors that impact the value of a PPA
• Evaluate fleshed-out PPA terms
• Assess the relationship between PPA price and value
• Discuss project production-related guarantees
• Identify the differences between the standard contractual parameters used for wind and solar contracts
• Evaluate risk distinctions that especially apply to virtual/financial PPAs

Tuesday, January 23, 2024 : Central Time

 

9:00 – 9:15 a.m. :: Overview and Introductions

9:15 – 10:30 a.m. :: A Survey of the PPA Landscape

• Corporate renewable energy transactions
• Types of off-takers
• Physical vs. Virtual PPAs (VPPAs)
• Market trends
• Variables that impact the markets of increasing renewables
• ERCOT deeper dive
• Impact to how PPAs are viewed
• Standard PPA settlement example
• Upside-share PPA
• Upside-share PPA with storage

Nicholas Pratley, Associate Director – Commercial Transmission & Market Analytics, EDF Renewable Energy

10:30 – 10:45 a.m. :: Morning Break

10:45 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. :: PPA Pricing Trends and Their Cost Determinants

• Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
• Historical wholesale market value by region
• Incentives
• Specific components
  • Energy value and capacity value
  • Value factor or capture ratio
  • Negative prices and basis risk
  • Impacts of curtailment
  • Market value
• Looking ahead
  • Influence of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)
  • Exploring the impact of CapEx and interest rate increases
  • “Headroom” comparison to gas-fired generation

Mark Bolinger, Research Scientist – Electricity Markets & Policy Dept, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)

12:30 – 1:15 p.m. :: Lunch Break

1:15 – 2:30 p.m. :: Finance & Valuation Fundamentals of PPAs – A Developer’s Perspective

• What drives a PPA?
• What are typical returns?
• What is in a pro-forma?
• What drives returns? What are levers?
• Example
• What are investor concerns?
• Concept of risk and return
• Translating PPA legal terms into financial terms
• Role of consultant(s)

Steve Birndorf, Director – Renewable Energy Consulting, Usource (a NextEra Energy company)

2:30 – 2:45 p.m. :: Afternoon Break

2:45 – 4:30 p.m. :: Examining the Underlying Risk Factors that Impact  PPA Valuation

• Curves
  • How market projections impact contract economics
  • Traded curves (forwards) vs. consultant curves (forecasts)
  • Components of curve generation
• Shapes
  • Timing of generation and delivery
• Hub
  • Types of contracts available
  • What happens when the same project offers to settle at a different hub?
• Penetration
  • Relationship of value to installed generation base
• Timing
  • Online date and tenor
  • Generation and delivery schedule
  • Relationship to all power generation in service pricing area
• Negative covariance
  • How does historical back-cast impact contract value?

Brock Mosovsky, Vice President – Analytics, cquant.io

4:30 p.m. :: Course Adjourns for Day

 

Wednesday, January 24, 2024 : Central Time

 

9:00 – 11:00 a.m. :: PPA Term Sheet Review – Key Commercial Terms

• Examples
• Business acquisition perspective
• Off-taker perspective

Examining the Relationship Between PPA Price and Value

• Price of the carbon benefit
• Net settlement
• Single project vs. portfolio contract position(s)
• Mark-to-market (MtM) value of PPA over time as market conditions evolve

Impact on PPA Risk and Price of Project Production-Related Guarantees

• Availability
• Output and performance
• Forced curtailment

Impact on PPA Risk and Price of Standard Contractual Parameters and Terms

• Liquidated damages and termination rights
• Force Majeure
• Differences between wind and solar contracts

Supria Ranade, Head – Power Markets, SoftBank Energy

11:00 – 11:15 a.m. :: Morning Break

11:15 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. :: Panel Discussion: Impact of Externalities on the PPA Landscape & Implications for Negotiations

• Supply Chain
• Tariffs
• Customs impositions
• Inflation Reduction Act
• CHIPS Act
• Interest rates
• EPC and SME advisor staffing
• Contracting
• Impact on project developers of utilities to commission, develop and own renewable energy assets
• Schedule and cost risk
• Liquidated damages
• Target COD and curative periods
• Geographic and/or locational complications
• Consolidation in project development
• Pricing trajectories
• Forward price curves

12:30 p.m. :: Program Adjournment

Steve Birndorf is Director – Renewable Energy Consulting at Usource, a NextEra Energy company. He is a seasoned solar and renewable energy executive with more than 20 years of professional experience. With a foundation in consulting, finance, and business development, he has developed projects, led teams and built organizations. Steve has developed, financed and advised on more than $500M of utility scale and C&I solar projects, largely to private industry, municipalities, school districts and water agencies. Before joining the company in 2020, Mr. Birndorf’s industry career has included stints at Edison Energy, Valor Analytics, Sungevity Solar, Borrego Solar and AMSOLAR. He graduated magna cum laude from the University of Pennsylvania and earned his MS and MBA from the University of California at Berkeley. 

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Mark Bolinger is a Research Scientist in the Electricity Markets and Policy Department at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.  He conducts research and analysis on renewable energy, with a focus on cost, benefit, and market analysis as well as renewable energy policy analysis and assistance.  Since joining LBNL, Mr. Bolinger has authored or co-authored more than 150 reports and articles, including 16 articles published in seven different archival journals.  Previously, he worked at Bridgewater Associates, Inc. developing and implementing investment and trading strategies in global credit and foreign exchange markets for portfolios of institutional clientele.  Mr. Bolinger holds a master’s degree in Energy and Resources from the University of California at Berkeley, and a bachelor’s degree from Dartmouth College.

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Brock Mosovsky, Ph.D., is Vice President of Analytics for cQuant.io. He has more than a dozen years’ experience developing, validating, and maintaining analytical models, with an emphasis on energy risk management, market analysis, and renewable energy valuation. Dr. Mosovsky has worked with some of the country’s largest utilities and independent power producers to help forecast value and mitigate risk for their diverse portfolios of physical and financial assets. He holds a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from the University of Colorado, Boulder and received a U.S. Fulbright Scholarship for study in the Netherlands.

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Nicholas Pratley has worked in electrical power systems analysis and design for more than three decades. In his current professional capacity, Mr. Pratley focuses on the U.S. northeast wholesale electricity markets, federal and state policy, and transmission plans with respect to large-scale renewable energy development. Trained in Electrical Engineering at McGill University and the Universite de Montreal polytechnical school, he began his career as a consulting engineer designing power distribution for heavy industrial projects and moved on to become a subject matter expert in power systems analysis for software vendors and consulting firms. He has experience with generation interconnection studies and transmission planning, including more than 15 years in electricity market simulation and price forecasting. Mr. Pratley has received training on Plexos, GE MAPS and PROMOD IV production cost models, and provided training and consulting services using PROMOD for many years. Clients have included transmission owners and developers, municipal utilities deciding whether to join an ISO market or where to construct a new generating plant, competitive generation (IPP) developers forecasting transmission congestion risk for wind/solar/storage project siting and contract negotiation, and pension funds investing in renewable generation projects. His work has influenced decisions to acquire, divest, build or invest in dozens of projects worth multiple billions of dollars.

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Supria Ranade is Head of Power Markets at SoftBank Energy.  She has more than 15 years of experience in the North American power, gas, and environmental markets. Prior to joining SoftBank Energy, Mrs. Ranade worked on structured transactions at Lightsource BP, Direct Energy, BGC Partners, and Evolution Markets.  She received her B.SC. in EnvironmentalEngineering from Johns Hopkins University, and a M.Sc. at Columbia University. Mrs. Ranade currently serves on theTax & Finance Advisory Committee for SEIA, and is a Friend of the Institute for Science and Policy at the Denver Museum of Nature and Science.

We will be using Microsoft Teams to facilitate your participation in the upcoming event. You do not need to have an existing Teams account in order to participate in the broadcast – the course will play in your browser and you will have the option of using a microphone to speak with the room and ask questions, or type any questions in via the chat window and our on-site representative will relay your question to the instructor.

• Microsoft recommends downloading and installing the Teams app if possible. You may also use the Edge browser or Chrome.
• You will receive a separate email with a unique link to a personalized landing page which will include links to join all sessions of this event.
• If you are using a microphone, please ensure that it is muted until such time as you need to ask a question.
• The remote meeting connection will be open approximately 30 minutes before the start of the course. We encourage you to connect as early as possible in case you experience any unforeseen problems.

Please Note: This event is being conducted entirely online. All attendees will connect and attend from their computer, one connection per purchase. For details please see our FAQ

If you are unable to attend at the scheduled date and time, we make recordings available to all attendees for 7 days after the event

REGISTER NOW FOR THIS EVENT:

PPA Valuation & Pricing Best Practices

January 23-24, 2024 | Online

Your registration may be transferred to a member of your organization up to 24 hours in advance of the event. Cancellations must be received on or before December 22, 2023 in order to be refunded and will be subject to a US $195.00 processing fee per registrant. No refunds will be made after this date. Cancellations received after this date will create a credit of the tuition (less processing fee) good toward any other EUCI event. This credit will be good for six months from the cancellation date. In the event of non-attendance, all registration fees will be forfeited. In case of conference cancellation, EUCIs liability is limited to refund of the event registration fee only. For more information regarding administrative policies, such as complaints and refunds, please contact our offices at 303-770-8800

Credits

EUCI is accredited by the International Accreditors for Continuing Education and Training (IACET) and offers IACET CEUs for its learning events that comply with the ANSI/IACET Continuing Education and Training Standard. IACET is recognized internationally as a standard development organization and accrediting body that promotes quality of continuing education and training.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 0.9 CEUs for this course.

Requirements for Successful Completion of Program  

Participants must log in each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the course to be eligible for continuing education credit.  

Instructional Methods 

PowerPoint presentations and classroom discussion will be used in this course for each learning outcome.  

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Upon successful completion of this event, program participants interested in receiving CPE credits will receive a certificate of completion.

Course CPE Credits: 11.0
There is no prerequisite for this Course.
Program field of study: Specialized Knowledge
Program Level: Basic
Delivery Method: Group Internet Based
Advanced Preparation: None

EUCI is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its web site: www.nasbaregistry.org