By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer
Natural gas inventories heading into the winter heating season are at their highest level since 2016, 6% above the five-year average, but electric reliability regulators remain concerned about the impact of freezing temperatures on deliveries to power plants.
“While the natural gas industry is making progress on commercial practices and voluntary commitments to improve winter preparedness, supplies to electric generators remain vulnerable in extreme cold temperatures,” the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) warned.
Working gas storage reached 3,922 billion cubic feet (Bcf) at the end of the gas injection season in large part thanks to a surplus coming out of last winter, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
As of March 2024, the end of last withdrawal season, there were 2,282 Bcf in storage, 25% more than at the same time in 2023 and 40% more than the five-year average for March.
“This enabled storage operators to reach their end-of-season targets with smaller natural gas injections,” the EIA said. “Low natural gas prices in 2024 encouraged producers to curtail production, which also reduced natural gas available for injections.”
There were less-than-average additions during the April-to-November injection season totaling about 21% less than the five-year average.
“Natural gas injections into storage for the weeks ending October 25 and November 1 (the last two weeks of injection season) exceeded their five-year averages, further boosting the volume of natural gas in storage,” the agency said.
While this is good news for the heating season, NERC in its annual winter reliability assessment raised concerns about bulk power generation getting adequate access to natural gas in severe winter weather.
In 2021, Winter Storm Uri led to failures in natural gas fields, which cascaded into problems in the Texas grid, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), that resulted in widespread blackouts and the deaths of 250 people.
Texas regulators instituted a series of weatherization requirements and market upgrades after Winter Storm Uri, but it is not clear how ready other regions are, according to NERC.
“Many areas of the bulk electric power system still face a risk of energy shortfalls under extreme cold conditions,” the organization said.
Natural gas production during cold weather events remains a concern in the Eastern and Western interconnections for outside of Texas, there is “little to no information to indicate that upstream gas producers, gatherers, and processors have improved winterization of their operations,” NERC said.
The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA), which represents major independent natural gas producers, said the industry is prepared for the winter.
NGSA President and CEO Dena Wiggins said in a statement that the group’s members “take a multitude of proactive measures to prepare for winter weather so that we can provide safe and reliable service to our customers.”
The association is forecasting a 5% increase in demand this winter compared to last, to 125.6 Bcf a day, and winter production is projected to be 111.6 Bcf a day, including Canadian import and liquefied natural gas imports.
Still, NERC said that in three of the past five winters, severe arctic storms have covered much of North America “causing regional demand for electricity and heating fuel to soar and exposing generation and fuel infrastructure in temperate areas to freezing conditions.”
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