By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer
U.S. wind turbine orders surged in the second quarter of 2026 to 2.8 gigawatts (GW) as developers raced to meet deadlines for federal tax credits, putting the industry on track to add 39 GW of onshore wind generation by 2030.
“More than half of the project pipeline from 2026 to 2028 is already operating or under construction, limiting near-term risk of market decline,” according to a Wood Mackenzie market report.
The Trump administration’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is phasing out federal investment tax credits for wind projects, requiring projects to have begun before July 4, 2026 or to be placed in-service by December 31, 2027.
“The spike in firm order intake is largely attributed to tax policy deadline compliance,” Wood Mackenzie, a research and consulting firm, said. “Many developers placed wind turbine orders before July 4th to meet the start of construction deadline.”
The bulk of the development is onshore wind with 39 GW of new capacity by 2030, Wood Mackenzie said. The outlook for offshore wind development, which has been a target of the Trump administration, remains unchanged at 5 GW quarter-on-quarter.
All the offshore capacity additions are expected to come online by the fourth quarter of 2027 as the construction pipeline continues to advance with progress on turbine installations, foundation work and testing.
The Trump administration has launched a program to buy back offshore leases from wind developers.
“Relinquished leases continued through September, pushing cumulative federal buyouts close to $4 billion,” Wood Mackenzie said. “Without stable long-term policy, offshore developers and financiers are expected to shift away from new U.S. project development beyond 2027.”
The largest exit was by RWE, a German energy company, which surrendered three leases – one each in California, New York and Louisiana – in a $1.22 billion settlement with the Trump administration
Still, some developers are moving forward. Ørsted, a Danish wind company, is moving ahead testing Revolution Wind, a 704-megawattt (MW) project off the coast of Rhode Island and advancing foundation work at the 924-MW Sunrise Wind farm off the New York coast.
The largest onshore wind project in the country ever built, the 3.5 GW SunZia project in New Mexico, came online during the quarter. The project accounts for most of the 5 GW of wind capacity added during the quarter.
Over the next five years, Texas will be the single largest market for onshore wind accounting for a quarter of all new capacity, Wood MacKenzie said. Other large markets – all in the West – include Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming.
Project costs are likely to increase with new building code guidelines from the American Society of Civil Engineers for projects in tornado-prone areas, although Wood Mackenzie said they could have broad project cost impacts across the county.
“Policy is the variable with the greatest impact on wind installations,” Tyler Gifford, a Wood Mackenzie analyst, said in a statement. “With tax credit expirations on the horizon, developers are prioritizing projects that can be operational by 2030, so the five-year onshore wind installation outlook remains stable.”
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