By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer
U.S. natural gas net exports are set to rise nearly 30% to 20.5 billion cubic feet a day by 2027, spurred by five new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities, according to the federal Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Already the world’s largest LNG exporter, the EIA is projecting LNG exports to rise 1.9 billion cubic feet a day in 2026 to an average 17 billion cubic feet a day and increase by another 1.5 billion cubic feet a day in 2027.
Pipeline exports are also set to grow reaching 10 billion cubic feet a day in 2027, mainly to meet Mexican demand, particularly for electricity generation.
Natural gas exports enter Mexico along four main corridors – South Texas, West Texas, Arizona, and California. These pipes have a combined capacity of about 14.8 billion cubic feet a day.
Canadian shipments of natural gas to the U.S. by pipeline averaged 8.6 billion cubic feet a day in 2025. The EIA projects them decreasing to 8 billion cubic feet a day as two west coast Canadian LNG terminals ramp up.
The U.S. also imports some LNG to serve New England, which is pipeline constrained. Net exports reflect the sum of exports minus imports.
The EIA said it expects LNG export terminals, already running at high utilization rates, to increase output even more due to the disruption of LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz as a result to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
“The disruptions, mostly concentrated in Qatar, currently represent over 10 billion cubic feet a day, or 20% of global supply,” the EIA said. “Qatar also sustained damage to 17% of its export capacity after a March 18 attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility damaged two liquefaction trains.”
QatarEnergy estimates repairs on the damaged trains could take up to five years. Importing countries are increasingly looking for supplies outside of the strait, the EIA said.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has been “the dominant driver” in LNG investments accounting for 55% of global investment since 2019, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“Qatar is a distant second with around 15%, while the remaining roughly 30% is spread across more than a dozen suppliers in the Middle East, Africa, North America, South America, Asia Pacific, and Russia,” the IEA said.
Current peak U.S. export capacity is 18.3 billion cubic feet a day. In 2026, Corpus Christi Stage 3 will start up trains 5–7 and Golden Pass LNG will start up its first two trains – with a combined capacity of 2 billion cubic feet a day.
Three new facilities: the Port Arthur LNG Phase, the Rio Grande LNG Trains 1 & 2 and the final train of Golden Pass LNG will begin exporting next year with a combined capacity of 3.7 billion cubic feet a day.
In addition to these new terminals, Plaquemines LNG and Elba Island LNG received U.S. Department of Energy approval to increase their permitted exports by 0.5 billion cubic feet a day and 0.1 billion cubic feet a day, respectively.
In 2025, U.S. LNG exports to Europe accounted for 68% of total LNG exports, rising to a record 10.3 billion cubic feet a day up from 6.3 billion cubic feet a day, according to the EIA.
Exports to China fell to zero from 0.6 billion cubic feet a day “as traders resold cargoes due to trade tensions,” the agency said.
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