By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer
Despite the Trump administration’s sharp turn on energy policy, 74% of new clean energy capacity slated to be built by 2035 under the Biden administration’s policy will still be built, according to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) analysis.
As a result, 67% of the greenhouse gas emission reductions projected under Biden policies and programs will still be made.
The reductions come primarily in wind, solar, and battery storage capacity.
The analysis – titled Glass Half Full: Building a Decarbonized U.S. Power Sector – was done by MIT’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
“It shows the policy shift slows the clean energy transition without reversing it,” the report said. “The energy transition’s direction is set by technology costs and demand growth, while policy shapes its pace and scale.”
Under Trump administration policies, fossil fuels will fill the gap with coal plants shutting down more slowly as a result and gas-fired plants running more. Total fossil generation is 19% higher over the study period.
The Trump administration’s policy centerpiece is the budget, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” or OBBBA, which cut wind, solar, and other clean energy tax credits, while bolstering oil, gas, and coal.
OBBBA was buttressed by presidential executive orders and orders from Department of Energy Secretary Christoper Wright, including ones to keep open old coal-fired power plants scheduled to close.
“Onshore wind sees the largest gap between scenarios, and its capacity preservation is the only data point that falls below the Glass Half Full measure in this entire analysis,” the study said.
Under the OBBBA, only 52% of the wind generation and 47% of the capacity that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) trajectory projected over 2025 to 2035 is added.
Utility-scale solar and battery storage are less severely impacted with at least 80% preserved in the OBBBA through 2035. Solar maintains 82% of its generation and 80% of its capacity.
“Falling module costs and strong underlying cost competitiveness absorb most of the policy change shock, suggesting that solar is credit-sensitive but not credit-dependent,” the analysis said.
Battery storage retains tax credit access in the OBBBA scenario and maintains 83% of the goals of the Biden administration’s IRA, the administration’s key vehicle for promoting clean energy.
Overall, coal generation averages 91% higher in the OBBBA scenario during this time period, while gas generation averages 10% higher.
Still, natural gas-fired capacity does not grow and is 3% below the IRA projection. “This is partly because the OBBBA scenario assumes that no additional unplanned gas can be built through 2029 due to ongoing natural gas turbine shortages,” the study said.
The MIT modeling projects essentially zero new nuclear, geothermal, or hydropower through 2035 under its cost and performance assumptions.
Nevertheless, since 2025, 216 clean energy projects worth $90 million have been cancelled, closed, or downsized, according to a study by E2, a clean energy business group.
“These cancellations are hitting exactly the kinds of projects America needs most: domestic manufacturing, battery storage, solar, wind, and electric vehicles,” Michael Timberlake, E2 research director, said in a statement.
Processing…please wait
