MISO projects a 35% surge in peak demand in the next 10 years driven by data centers

By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) expects its peak load will grow about 35% in the next 10 years to 163 gigawatts (GW), spurred primarily by data center development, the grid operator said in a draft long-term forecast.

The forecast for data center load is now double the level projected in the 2024 long-term forecast by MISO, which operates a grid across 15 central states from Louisiana to North Dakota and the Canadian province of Manitoba.

“The MISO region is undergoing rapid and sustained load growth at levels not seen in decades,” the forecast said. “U.S. data centers could exceed 10% of total electricity demand by 2030 and potentially surpass 20% by 2045, making them a dominant load growth driver.”

The grid operator said it is seeing proposed data center projects growing larger, with some “gigawatt-scale” data center campuses.

“As seen in stakeholder submissions, stakeholders are increasingly modeling concentrated load additions of 100 to 1000+ MW [megawatts],” MISO said.

“Data centers driven by rapid expansion in AI and cloud computing are becoming the primary drivers of load growth in MISO, with large, constant power needs and fast deployment timelines making them uniquely impactful,” the forecast said.

MISO is projecting an annual growth rate in demand of 2% up from 1.6% in the 2024 long-term forecast.

The system’s load factor – a measure of average demand over peak demand – is expected to rise to 70% from 53% by 2040.

Load growth will be driven primarily by three forces: data centers, manufacturing, and electric vehicle adoption.

Data center demand is projected to grow at an average annual compounded rate of about 18% or 188 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 248 TWh of demand. EVs are set to have a 12% to 15% average growth rate, equal to 47 TWh to 78 TWh.

“Manufacturing load growth in MISO is expected to strengthen after years of relatively flat demand, contributing roughly 1.4% annual electricity growth through the 2040s,” the forecast said.

Data center growth will likely be focused in MISO’s central region, which includes Illinois, Michigan, and Indiana.

“Central region growth is driven by abundant low-cost land and industrial-focused incentives that attract large hyperscale campuses,” the forecast said.

MISO cautioned, however, that growth rates will depend upon the pace in the growth of AI and that information in this emerging field of data centers remains sparse.

“Limited data transparency and planning visibility — including no centralized data clearinghouse, opaque project pipelines, lack of historical operational/metered data, uncertain project commitments, and rapid technological change — increase forecasting and execution risk,” MISO said.