By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer
Global electric vehicle (EV) sales are set to have another record-breaking year in 2025, even as the U.S. market is hit with policies to cut back support for the vehicles, according to BloombergNEF.
BNEF is projecting nearly 22 million passenger EV sales this year, up 25% from 2024. China accounts for nearly two-thirds of sales, followed by Europe with 17% and the US with 7%.
One out of four passenger vehicles sold this year worldwide will be plug-in electric vehicles, while just a few years ago EVs made up less than 5% of global new vehicle sales.
Still, 2025 marks the first year that BNEF has reduced its near-term and long-term passenger EV outlook.
“Policy changes in the U.S. are the biggest factor, with national fuel-economy targets being rolled back, supportive elements of the Inflation Reduction Act either being removed or under threat, and the potential removal of California’s ability to set its own air quality standards,” BNEF said.
In addition, Europe has delayed its near-term vehicle CO2 reduction targets, and new tariffs and trade tension are “shaking up” global automotive markets. This is making it more difficult to introduce the lower-cost models into import markets.
“The near-term struggles in the U.S. mean that the country never catches up with China or Europe, and for the first time, trails below the global adoption average for the forecast period,” BNEF said.
The BNEF analysis said that Thailand now has a higher EV adoption rate than the U.S.
Under the tax and spending bill signed into law July 4 by President Donald Trump, the $7,500 tax credit for the purchase of new and used EVs expires Sept. 30, 2025, and the tax credit for installing charging stations at homes and business ends June 30, 2026.
“The U.S. passenger EV adoption outlook is now much lower as EV policies and support are being rolled back,” BNEF said, with passenger electric car sales reaching 4.1 million in 2030 from 1.6 million in 2025, accounting for 27% of sales.
“This is significantly less than in our previous outlook and it results in cumulative EV sales between now and 2030 being 14 million units lower,” BNEF said, adding that “automotive import tariffs of 25% further slash the addressable market for EVs in the country.”
Global passenger EV sales are projected to rise from 17.6 million in 2024 to more than 39 million in 2030.
China’s share of the global EV market continues to grow, rising to 67% in 2025 from 65% in 2024. About 80% of all cars sold in China are EVs, while the share for the global market is about 42%.
In Europe, EV sales account for 52% of all new car sales. For the Nordic countries, EV sales are 90% of the market.
The United Kingdom has become the top EV market among the large European countries with its relatively open market to lower-cost Chinese EVs, which now account for 40% of the UK electric car market.
A combination of cuts to EV subsidies and some backtracking by auto makers on EV commitments, depressed sales in Germany, once the largest European market, for the second year in a row.
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