Long Term Load Forecasting Fundamentals and Best Practices

Load forecasting is a fundamental element in utility business operations and planning processes. During the past 100-plus years, load forecasting methodologies have evolved as the industry and related technologies advanced. Consequently, many classical methods are no longer suitable in addressing today’s challenges in the utility industry.

This course offers a comprehensive and in-depth, yet practical, approach to long-term load forecasting. The content includes:

• A review of the fundamental concepts and forecasting methodologies
• A statistical approach that leverages utility knowledge and practical experience
• Probabilistic forecasting methods that help better quantify the uncertainties of the unpredictable future
• Approaches to emerging challenges, including growth in distributed generation and electric vehicle penetration

It brings together the key concepts and practical applications to solving both long-standing and emerging forecasting challenges, including real life examples.  Content is presented using clear language, spreadsheet format datasets, and simple tabular and graphical statistical output that is software agnostic.

Attendees will cover content and engage in discussions that will allow them to:

• Review the fundamental concepts of load forecasting
• Recognize the evolution of load forecasting methods
• Review data requirements and sources
• Build and test potential regression-based forecasting models
• Evaluate long-term energy and peak demand forecasts
• Develop and apply scenario analyses
• Assess weather normalization and ex post forecasting to understand forecast variance
• Apply real life utility knowledge and judgment into forecasts
• Analyze and address the adoption of electric vehicles, distributed generation, and other emerging technologies

This course is open to utilities, power and energy industry operating companies (see above), software vendors, consumer groups, project developers and regulators only.  Registrations that do not meet this criteria – or that may be construed as a competitive conflict – will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis and may not qualify for attendance.  Any determination as to the fulfillment of a registration to attend this program shall reside solely with EUCI.  Questions re: the application of this restriction can be addressed to [email protected].