By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer
U.S. natural gas production – mainly in the Haynesville and Permian plays – is outpacing the expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, leading to a softening of domestic natural gas prices in the short term, according to industry consultant Enverus Intelligence Research.
Enverus said that the imbalance between production and export capacity will create a period, from late 2026 through 2027, when the domestic market will have to absorb more natural gas.
“Haynesville and Permian supply is growing ahead of LNG demand and above our initial expectations,” Jimmy McNamara, a principal analyst at Enverus, said in a statement.” We expect supply additions to exceed incremental LNG demand by the end of 2027.”
As a result, Enverus has lowered its 2027 Henry Hub price forecast to $3.25 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) from $3.50 MMBtu.
The disparity between near-term supply additions and demand from LNG export terminals will be about 1.3 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/d) by the end of 2027.
The imbalance is being driven by record production from the Haynesville Shale in Louisiana and East Texas, and the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.
The Haynesville is a natural gas play, while the natural gas from the Permian is “associated gas” that comes with the basin’s oil production.
“U.S. natural gas production has set numerous monthly record highs in 2026 so far, increasing the amount of natural gas available to meet domestic consumption and exports, while replenishing underground storage,” according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
From June through August, Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.93 MMBtu, 6% less than the same period last year, the EIA said.
“Prices were lower this summer despite exceptionally hot weather that increased electricity demand for air conditioning,” the EIA said. “Natural gas-fired power plants often help meet higher demand during such periods.”
The EIA projects dry natural gas production will set a record 111.2 billion Bcf/d in 2026.
Haynesville production is forecast by Enverus to reach 18.4 Bcf/d by year-end 2027, with incremental supply expected from July 2026 through the end of 2027.
Permian gas infrastructure is projected to add 4.7 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, enabling more gas to reach the Gulf Coast and North Texas markets.
By end of 2030, Enverus forecasts approximately 4 Bcf/d of Haynesville production growth and approximately 10 Bcf/d of additional Permian dry gas production.
The U.S. is the world’s biggest LNG exporter with exports growing to 15 Bcf/d in 2025 from 0.5 Bcf/d in 2016. The EIA forecasts LNG exports will surpass 18.1 Bcf/d in 2027.
The United States has eight operational LNG export terminals with newest facility going into operation in March 2026 – Golden Pass LNG in Sabine Pass, Texas, with 2 Bcf/d capacity. The EIA projects export capacity to nearly double compared with December 2025.
Processing…please wait
