By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer
Spurred by surging demand from data centers, the U.S. nearly doubled its projected natural gas-fired generating capacity – surpassing China – but how much will get built is still uncertain, according to an analysis from Global Energy Monitor (GEM).
There are now 189 gigawatts (GW) of gas-fired capacity in the U.S. across the announced, pre-construction and construction phases on GEM’s Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker. The capacity is targeted to meet the electricity demands created by data centers.
Projects under construction in the U.S. were up 76% in the first half of the year, reaching 52 GW, of which 16.9 GW is for projects to power data centers.
Overall, development of gas-fired capacity is up 50% since 2025 to 378 GW – equal to one-third of the global total.
“If all these plants are built, the U.S.’ existing gas fleet would grow by roughly two-thirds, at an estimated cost of over $647 billion,” the analysis said.
However, the report cautioned that three-quarters of the global pipeline is still in early-stage development, and in the first six months of 2026, 45 GW of announced and pre-construction capacity was delayed.
“This frenzy of gas proposals is running headlong into the hurdles of an already tight gas market,” Jenny Martos, project manager for the Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker at GEM, said in a statement.
“It is nearly impossible nowadays to guess what is a pie-in-the sky proposal, and what has a real chance of getting built. The projects that eventually clear those hurdles are paying top dollar for turbines, locking in emissions, and pushing up electricity prices,” she said.
Two-thirds of gas-fired capacity in development globally, and more than half of projects tied to data centers, do not have firm contracts for turbines or engines, and almost one-quarter of projects slated for data centers do not have a named start year.
“Turbine supply constraints, financing uncertainty, local data center moratoriums, and mounting public opposition leave the true scale of the gas power buildout uncertain,” the report said.
The rising demand for turbines has increased prices by 50%. Delivery times are now stretching as long as five years.
In the face of these costs and delays, data center developers are turning to reciprocating engines and smaller aeroderivative gas turbines, which are quicker to manufacture and install.
Engine capacity in development went from 31 GW to 67 GW in six months, and engine capacity tied to data centers more than tripled in the same period, reaching 45 GW, or nearly one-quarter of data centers gas-powered capacity.
The U.S. capacity in development is nearly three times as much as China’s 132 GW and seven times Vietnam – the third country for gas-fired capacity at 54 GW.
“The U.S. is now building twice as much gas-fired capacity as China (24 GW) and has nearly three times its gas-fired power capacity in development,” the report said.
Texas accounts for almost a third of the U.S. project pipeline with 122 GW of gas-fired power capacity in development, a 51% jump in the last six months, followed by Ohio with 15.5 GW, and Pennsylvania with 14.3 GW of capacity.
Texas’ capacity exceeds any other country in the world, with two-thirds planned to directly power new data centers.
“The boom in gas-fired capacity to power data centers still faces headwinds, however. Gas turbines are the most critical and expensive component in building a gas-fired power plant. Faced with rising turbine demand, the leading three turbine manufacturers are now reporting rising order backlogs and multi-year lead times,” the GEM analysis said.
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