By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer
Winter electricity demand is outpacing new generation, but resources should still be adequate, although some regions with data center demands may be vulnerable in extreme weather, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC).
Peak demand is projected to be 20 gigawatts (GW) higher this winter than last, a 2.5% increase, while total resources to meet that peak are up just 9.4 GW, NERC’s Winter Reliability Assessment said.
“Winter electricity demand is rising at the fastest rate in recent years, particularly in areas where data center development is occurring,” the assessment said.
Nevertheless, all regions across the country should have adequate resources to meet demand, although the combination of data center demand and an extended cold snap could challenge some areas.
“Two trends affecting resource adequacy across the BPS [bulk power system] for the upcoming winter are rising electricity demand forecasts and a continued shift in the resource mix characterized by the retirement of thermal generators and growth in battery resources,” the assessment said.
Just over 11 GW of peak battery capacity has been added to the system, along with nearly 1.2 GW of solar, 8 GW of demand-response programs and 3.3 GW of thermal and hydro generation. Wind capacity, however, was adjusted downward by 14.2 GW.
“This latest assessment highlights progress on cold weather readiness but underscores that more work remains to ensure energy and fuel supplies can be reliably delivered even during the harshest conditions,” John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis, said in a statement.
Regions facing “elevated” risks in extreme weather conditions include New England, the Carolinas, parts of the Tennessee Valley region, Texas, eastern Rocky Mountain states, the Pacific Northwest, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces.
For example, in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, NERC said, “strong load growth from new data centers and other large industrial end users is driving higher winter electricity demand forecasts and contributing to continued risk of supply shortfalls.”
In the Rocky Mountain region – including Colorado, most of Wyoming, and parts of Nebraska and South Dakota – demand is up almost 1%, with data centers and commercial and industrial customer growth the primary drivers.
North and South Carolina winter peak has increased 700 megawatts (MW) since last winter, while capacity has declined, cutting the region’s reserve margin. The state also faces a change from peaking in both summer and winter.
“This is due to the continued addition of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation that shaves off summer peak demand and a trend toward electrification of heating that drives up winter peak demand,” NERC said.
There are several regions that will have to depend upon imports of power – where available – if their systems are stressed. These include New England, the Canadian Maritime Provinces, the Utah, southern Idaho and western Wyoming region and the region covering Montana, Oregon and Washington and parts of northern California.
As well as imports, some regions may have to curtail service to maintain system reliability in the face of severe weather, NERC said.
About 43% of U.S. electricity is generated by natural gas-fired plants, with some regions having an even higher share of gas-fired generation. In 2021, during Winter Storm Uri, gas supplies were severely disrupted creating electricity blackouts in Texas and supply problems for other utilities.
“Prolonged, wide-area cold snaps can drive sharp increases in electricity demand and threaten reliable BPS generation and the availability of fuel supplies for natural gas-fired generation,” NERC said.
Since Winter Storm Uri, there have been three more arctic storms that have caused a jump in electricity and heating fuel demands and threatened the natural gas supply chains.
“Although we are seeing evidence of improved performance, grid operators in areas that rely on single-fuel gas-fired generators are exposed to unanticipated generator loss during cold snaps when gas supply interruptions are more prevalent,” said Mark Olson, NERC’s manager of Reliability Assessments.
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