By Mark Jaffe, EUCI energy writer
In the face of tariffs and economic and political uncertainties, the performance of clean energy technologies remains robust with 59 gigawatts (GW) of renewable generation and 31 GW of battery storage set to be installed in 2025, according to two market reports.
“Investors and businesses navigating the energy transition face rising complexity and uncertainty against a backdrop of elevated policy risk and geopolitical tension,” according to BloombergNEF’s New Energy Outlook. “Yet key clean-energy technologies continue to enjoy strong fundamentals, with favorable economics.”
Among the market uncertainties is the Trump administration’s push to bolster coal and fossil fuels and the possible loss of tax credits for renewable projects.
Still, S&P Global in its 2025 U.S. Power Sector Outlook said that solar and energy storage additions “show no signs of slowing.”
“U.S. federal policy changes coupled with concerns about surging demand for electricity and reliability could provide a reprieve for the nation’s fossil fuels,” S&P Global said, “but renewable energy and storage still dominate near-term generation additions.”
S&P Global projects 49 GW of solar, 10 GW of wind, and 31 GW of storage coming online in 2025. There also will be small additions of hydropower, 48 megawatts, and biomass, 26 megawatts.
Almost all the solar generation comes in the territory of major grid operators: the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), 12 GW; the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), 8 GW; the PJM Interconnection, 6 GW; and the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), 3 GW.
There will also be 6.4 GW of new gas-fired capacity, partially offset by 4.2 GW of retirements. Coal will see the loss of 6.2 GW of capacity.
In April, President Donald Trump signed executive orders and a memorandum aimed at bolstering coal production and keeping coal-fired plants in operation.
“The Trump administration is looking to unravel policies it says impeded fossil fuels while promoting efforts to preserve coal-fired generation and slow the energy transition,” S&P Global said.
Industry analysts, however, see the administration’s moves less of a boost to coal than for natural gas.
“We continue to see coal’s fate tied to the cost of natural gas, with little interest from any party in [new-build] coal generation.” Guggenheim Securities analyst Shahriar Pourreza said in an April note.
Steven Piper, energy research director for S&P Global, said, “There is going to be a lot of momentum for natural gas … in the meantime there is a lot of momentum for green energy.”
Gas will play a larger role in the energy transition due to lower long-term fuel price expectations and increased electricity demand from data centers, a load compatible with natural gas-fired generation, BloombergNEF said.
“After 2035, power-sector gas consumption kicks in again, led mainly by the U.S., where favorable economics support investment in gas-fired generation,” BloombergNEF said.
In its economic transition scenario, BlombergNEF forecasts installed wind capacity doubling by 2035 to 321 GW, and solar more than tripling to 692 GW. The installed battery storage rises to 175 GW by 2035 from 29 GW in 2024.
BloombergNEF’s economic transition scenario is based upon how fast a transition to low-carbon technologies can move “based purely on competitive economics and existing short-term policy settings.”
While, clean energy technologies have continued to perform well, the Trump administration’s policies opposing offshore and onshore wind will lead to 15% less wind capacity in the U.S. by 2035 compared to last year’s economic transition scenario projections.
By contrast, lower solar and battery costs increased the Bloomberg estimates for 2035 installations for solar by 7% and battery storage by 11% compared to the estimates in the 2024 economic transition scenario.
“Policy changes – both those that have been enacted and those that are still to come – can and will affect the pace of the transition in the U.S.,” BloombergNEF said, “but clean energy technologies will continue to gain ground based on economics.”
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