Applying ELCC in ISOs and Utility Balancing Areas to Ensure Resource Adequacy
December 13-14, 2021 | Online :: Central Time
Engineers, economists, resource planners and analysts are constantly searching for means and methods by which they can most accurately model and inform their power system requirements to ensure that resources are available to serve load when and where needed. This symposium will examine effective load carrying capacity (ELCC), the resource adequacy (RA) methodology that offers arguably the most sophisticated overall approach to assessing the resource requirements for a particular system. The multiple components of ELCC will be considered in the two different North American resource procurement paradigms: 1) wholesale electricity markets (ISOs and RTOs) and 2) traditional vertically integrated, bi-lateral contracting markets. Discussions will range from the fundamentals of calculating ELCC across a range of resources, to conducting gap analysis for modeling deficiencies, to advanced topics such as taking into account the differing impact of accuracy vs stability calculations on market signals.
Resource adequacy (RA) is one of the critical measures power system analysts used to model reliability of service – an essential requirement – for a utility or power system operator. Multiple conditions drive the requirement for improved accuracy in ensuring system RA – transformational shifts in the grid from centralized to more distributed power generation, the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources w/radically different operating characteristics than the traditional baseload supply stack, legacy and inadequate grid infrastructure, technology shifts, the urgency for decarbonization – and a much longer list. Further mandating the need for improved RA measures is the system distress triggered by weather and other natural disasters seen more frequently by the grid across North America.
The course content will:
- Evaluate how to initiate – or improve existing – ELCC processes
- Examine how ELCC is accredited in different market contexts
- Identify the challenges for modeling, applying and adopting ELCC measures accurately
- Analyze what kind of ELCC study should be conducted and adopted
- Discuss how ELCC is applied to various power system resources
- Assess the factors associated with conducting a gap analysis
- Determine how best to conduct ELCC analysis to account for the impacts of extreme weather and assure reliability
Monday, December 13, 2021 : Central Time
12:45 – 1:00 p.m.
1:00 – 4:45 p.m.
1:00 – 1:15 p.m. :: Overview & Introductions
1:15 – 2:45 p.m. :: Challenges to Evaluating and Adopting ELCC Measures
- Market design, framework, and capacity procurement mechanism variations
- Identifying and balancing stakeholder perspectives
- Formulating a final plan for submittal and adoption to approval authorities
- State and provincial regulatory commissions
- Keeping pace with how technology advancement affects RA attainment
- Accreditation in market
- How to group resources
- How to allocate diversity benefit
2:45 – 3:00 p.m. :: Afternoon Break
3:00 – 4:45 p.m. :: Alternate ELCC Design Approaches Considered by Different Procurement/Market Power Systems
- What kind of ELCC study should be conducted?
- Average vs. marginal ELCC basis
- What are the trade-offs?
- How ELCC is applied to various resources
- Traditional (thermal) generation
- Hydro, by class
- Intermittent, renewable
- Demand response
- Hybrid plants
- Impact of accuracy vs stability calculations on market signals
- Establishing annual vs multi-year ELCC calculations
4:45 p.m. :: Adjourn for Day
Tuesday, December 14, 2021 : Central Time
8:45 – 9:00 a.m.
12:15 – 1:00 p.m.
9:00 a.m. – 4:45 p.m.
9:00 – 10:30 a.m. :: Initiating – or Improving Existing – ELCC Process
- Purpose and use of RA assessment
- System need
- Policy need
- Emerging needs
- Using new metrics
- Time slices
- Energy sufficiency across all hours of day, week, seasons
- Unserved energy
- Conducting gap analysis
- Market/procurement mechanism vs purpose and need
- Stakeholder interest and readiness
- Data availability and ELCC modeling/analysis readiness
- Access to and incorporation of relevant external data
10:30- 10:45 a.m. :: Morning Break
10:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Initiating – or Improving Existing – ELCC Processes (cont’d)
- Penetration of non-traditional resources
- Current vs potential
- ELCC assessment considerations
- Third-party value of independent view vs internal investigator’s knowledge of system
- Internal vs third-party privacy
- Impact on market participants
- Financial impact of market/procurement
- Procedural requirements
12:15 – 1:00 p.m. :: Lunch Break
1:00 – 2:45 p.m. :: Getting ELCC Right – Managing the Changing Fleet
- Integrating renewables
- Recognizing the value of renewables on RA
- Identifying the changing system needs and make necessary mechanism adjustments (shifted system risk timing, increased ramping needs, locational voltage needs, inertia, etc.)
- Managing and recognizing storage
- Properly value the storage contribution to RA
- Providing efficient signal to encourage pairing with storage to maximize value to RA
- Plan for aging resources
- Identify the full value of traditional resources
- Making sensible retirement/replacement decisions (consideration beyond just RA)
- Distinguishing between modeling RA and the physical + operational measures required to achieve RA
2:45 – 3:00 p.m. :: Afternoon Break
3:00 – 4:45 p.m. :: Getting ELCC Right – Building Resiliency to Account for Impacts of Extreme Weather
- Transmission security and capability under extreme weather conditions
- Impact on generation availability beyond normal plant outage rate
- Correlated weather impact on renewable output
- Gas-electric system coordination
- Socio-economic benefits/considerations/outcomes when building up resiliency
- De-carbonization objectives
- Lessons learned from recent grid events and implications of RA modeling outcomes on grid operations
4:45 p.m. :: Symposium Adjournment
The Mechanics of ELCC
Monday, December 13, 2021 : Central Time
This workshop will examine the methodology, tools and processes for deriving effective load carrying capacity (ELCC). It will detail the challenges and opportunities that applying ELCC poses to IRP and other power system modelers and analysts. And the workshop will consider ways in which the industry can collaborate to refine the elements and applicability of ELCC “in the real world” of resource adequacy planning.
Attendees will cover content and engage in discussions and exercises that will allow them to:
- Assess when to use ELCC in developing planning reserve margin and resource adequacy assumptions
- Define the methodology to formulate correct ELCC analyses
- Evaluate and address challenges in applying ELCC
- Discuss what is still necessary to resolve before ELCC can be broadly applied as a reserve margin and resource adequacy planning standard
- Identify how and under what circumstances utilities and power system planners can collaborate to further develop and refine the use of ELCC in reserve margin and resource adequacy planning contexts
8:45 – 9:00 a.m.
9:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m.
9:00 – 9:15 am. :: Overview & Introductions
9:15 – 10:30 a.m. :: Linkage between RA and ELCC
- Setting RA objective to establish system capacity requirements
- Attainment instruments
- Capacity market – mostly for de-aggregated jurisdiction)
- Generation procurement – mostly for vertically integrated jurisdiction)
- Attainment processes to ensure that RA requirements are met
- Types of RA measures
- State-of-the-art RA measures
- Traditional generator – EFORd
- Intermittent resources – ELCC
10:30 – 10:45 a.m. :: Break
10:45 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: ELCC Basics
- Methodology, Tools and Processes for Deriving ELCC
- Correlation between ELCC and resource adequacy
- Defining reliability standard
- Establishing planning reserve margin (PRM)
- Determining capacity contribution evaluation
- ELCC calculations and characteristics
- Relationship to reliability metrics
- LOLP starting point and inputs
- Marginal ELCC
- Average (aka, cumulative, portfolio) ELCC
- Diversity benefit allocation
- Synergistic vs antagonistic pairing of resources
- Correlation between ELCC and resource adequacy
- Applying ELCC in Resource Planning
- Total capacity value of portfolio
- Contribution to system capacity need
- Use in capacity expansion model
- Market Applications
- Accreditation in centralized capacity markets
- Multiple frameworks
- Evaluating accreditation methods
Dr. Joseph Bowring is the President of Monitoring Analytics. Since 1999, Dr. Bowring has been the Independent Market Monitor for PJM, responsible for all market monitoring activities of PJM Interconnection. He has extensive experience in applied energy and regulatory economics. Dr. Bowring has a PhD in Economics from the University of Massachusetts. He has taught economics as a member of the faculty at Bucknell University and Villanova University. He has served as senior staff economist for the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities and as Chief Economist for the New Jersey Department of the Public Advocates Division of Rate Counsel. Dr. Bowring has also worked as an independent consulting economist.
Joe Cavicchi is Vice President with Analysis Group and is based in Boston, Massachusetts. He is an energy economist whose expertise is focused on wholesale and retail electricity markets. He conducts economic analyses evaluating the impact of regulatory policies on electricity markets, applies rigorous analytical modeling tools to power system operations, conducts power market antitrust analyses, and leads economic analyses in association with a variety of wholesale and retail power contracting arrangements. Mr. Cavicchi has extensive experience as an expert witness before the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and other federal and state regulatory authorities. He also presents and publishes frequently on issues relevant to electricity market design and evolution. Prior to joining Analysis Group, Mr. Cavicchi was Executive Vice President at Compass Lexecon. Before that he was a staff mechanical engineer and a project manager at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Mr. Cavicchi holds an S.M. in technology policy from MIT, an S.M. in environmental engineering from Tufts University and a B.S. in mechanical engineering from the University of Connecticut.
Beth Garza is a senior fellow with R Street’s Energy & Environmental Policy Team. Prior to joining R Street, she served as the director of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas Independent Market Monitor from 2014 through 2019 after serving as the deputy director since 2008. In this role, she was responsible for monitoring market participant activity, evaluating wholesale market operations and recommending improvements to the wholesale market design. Over the course of her 35-year career in the electric utility industry, Ms. Garza has held a variety of leadership roles in generation and transmission planning, system operations, regulatory affairs and market design for both regulated and competitive entities. Her previous employers include Nextera and Austin Energy.
Yvonne Huang is Senior Specialist for ICAP Market Operations at the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), where she has worked since 2020. Prior to joining the NYISO, she worked at the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) in Ontario for 8 years, culminating in the position of Senior Planner of the Capacity Market. She also served in planning and analytical roles for the Ontario Power Authority.
Devin Hartman is Director of the Energy and Environmental Policy Program at the R Street Institute. In this role, he will lead R Street’s efforts to advance a cleaner environment and a thriving economy through principles of market competition, limited government and well-founded science. He rejoined the Institute earlier this year, which he had left a couple of years ago to step in as president and CEO of ELCON, a national association representing large industrial consumers of electricity that own and operate major manufacturing facilities throughout the U.S. and in all foreign markets. He previously worked for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), where he conducted economic analyses of wholesale electricity markets and served on policy teams advising the Commission on generator fuel assurance, natural gas-electric industry coordination, and market designs that facilitate the efficient and reliable operation of the bulk electric system. Before his tenure at FERC, Mr. Hartman led the modernization of utility resource planning rules at the Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission, where he also coordinated environmental compliance activities with the Indiana Department of Environmental Management and led research on regulatory treatment of unconventional technologies and innovative rate design. He also worked on air pollution policy for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and for various energy and environmental policy non-profit organizations. Mr. Hartman also serves as a council member for the National Capital Area Chapter of the U.S. Association for Energy Economics.
Pallas LeeVanSchaick is with the Market Monitoring Unit for the NYISO and Vice President of Potomac Economics, with experience in analyzing deregulated markets and market power issues as well as developing market monitoring and mitigation software. He is the Director of the Market Monitoring Unit of the New York ISO and the Director of the Market Monitoring Unit for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. He has also co-authored a number of studies on deregulated electricity markets in Texas, New England, and New York. Dr. LeeVanSchaick holds a Ph.D. in economics from George Mason University with concentrations in experimental economics and economic systems design.
Zach Ming is a Director in E3’s resource planning practice, with an emphasis on the reliability of high renewable electricity systems. He also has extensive expertise in regulatory and rate design issues, distributed resource cost effectiveness, and market design. Mr. Ming has been the lead author on several high-profile resource planning studies including Long-Run Resource Adequacy under Deep Decarbonization Pathways for California and Resource Adequacy in the Pacific Northwest. He teaches a graduate level course at Stanford University titled Electricity Economics that provides a foundation of economic principles on the topics of regulation, planning, and operation of electric utilities. He joined the firm in 2013. His prior experience includes internships at General Electric, Citigroup, Oklahoma Gas & Electric, and MAP Royalty. Mr. Ming obtained BS and MS degrees in engineering from Stanford University.
Resmi Surendran is the senior director for regulatory policy at Shell. She joined the firm after serving as Senior Manager of Market Analysis and Design for ERCOT, where she was responsible for Operations/ Analysis/ Design of Real-Time Market/Day-Ahead Market/Congestion Revenue Rights Markets. She had been with ERCOT since 2004 working in different areas covering the ISO’s Operations/planning/markets and was actively involved with stakeholders in design and implementation of ERCOT Nodal Market Management System. She received her bachelor degree in Electrical and Electronics Engineering from University of Kerala, India in 2000 and her Master degree in Electrical and Computer Engineering from University of Texas at Austin in 2004.
Zachary Smith is Manager of Capacity Market Design at NYISO. He has served in this organizational area for some eight years, starting first as an engineer in ICAP Market Operations, then moving to Supervisor before assuming his current position. Mr. Smith has also served the organization in roles relation to operations regional market coordination and price validation analysis. He earned a Master’s degree in Engineering and Management Science at Clarkson University and a Bachelor’s degree in Computer Engineering at Union College.
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Case studies, PowerPoint presentations, and panel discussions will be used in this program.
Who Should Attend
- System and bulk power system operators
- Utilities and other large balancing authorities
- Federal and regional reliability organizations
- State commissions and other regulatory or standard-setting agencies
- Wholesale electricity market participants
- Wholesale electricity market monitors
- Trade groups representing generators
- Energy policy and analysis consultancies and organizations
- Environmental and social justice stakeholder interests
- Merchant and independent power producers
- Traditional (fossil) energy project developers, asset owners and operators