By - Jon Brown

Fundamentals of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
November 13-14, 2017 | Denver, CO


Successful Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is achieved by making good decisions on the establishment of sound policies and procedures that address the management and execution of programs and projects.

Transcending the desire to “do it the way that we have always done it” is difficult. Providing sound management decisions throughout the life of a program or project is critical. There is a wide variation, however, in the management approaches, systems, and tools being used for decision-making. Many agencies still rely on informal and fairly unstructured methods. This course introduces Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) in risk-based decision-making (RBDM) as a tool for structured decision making.

The key drivers to successful PRA are: identifying priorities, obtaining resources, delivering the program, and managing finances. The risk-based decision-making process shown here allows agencies to optimize their program and project prioritization and resource allocation practices.  We will discuss each step in the RBDM process in greater detail.

Learning Outcomes

  • Identify Risks – Document the conditions and events that represent material threats to the organization’s achievement of its objectives or represent areas to exploit for competitive advantage
  • Analyze/Quantify Risks – Calibrate and, wherever possible, create probability distributions of outcomes for each material risk
  • Integrate Risks – Aggregate all risk contributors, and express results in terms of impact on the organization’s key performance indicators (i.e., the “aggregate risk profile”)
  • Assess/Prioritize Risks – Determine the contribution of each risk to the aggregate risk profile, and prioritize accordingly
  • Treat/Exploit Risks – Develop strategies for controlling or exploiting the various risks
  • Monitor and Review – Continual gauging of the risk environment and the performance of the risk management strategies



EUCI has been accredited as an Authorized Provider by the International Association for Continuing Education and Training (IACET).  In obtaining this accreditation, EUCI has demonstrated that it  complies with the ANSI/IACET Standard which is recognized internationally as a standard of good practice. As a result of their Authorized Provider status, EUCI is authorized to offer IACET CEUs for its programs that qualify under the ANSI/IACET Standard.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.0 CEUs for this event.


Instructional Methods

This program will use PowerPoint Presentations, group discussions, group workshops, as well as active participation.

Requirements for a Successful Completion of Program

Participants must sign in/out each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the course to be eligible for continuing education credit.


Monday, November 13, 2017

8:00 – 8:30 a.m. :: Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m. – 4:30 p.m. :: Course Timing

12:00 – 1:00 p.m. :: Group Luncheon

Risk Based Decision Making

  • Overview and introduction
  • General terms
  • Key drivers

Decision Structure

  • Establish the decision structure
    • Define decision
    • Determine involvement
    • Identify options available
    • Identify factors of influence
    • Gather information

Risk Assessment

  • Characterizing risk
    • What can go wrong?
    • How likely is it?
    • What are the impacts?
  • Perform the risk assessment
    • Establish questions
    • Determine information needed
    • Select tools
    • Establish scope
    • Generate information
  • Levels of risk assessment

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

8:00 – 8: 30 a.m. :: Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. :: Course Timing

Risk Management

  • Application of results to risk management decision-making
    • Assess risk management options
    • Using risk-based information in decision-making
  • Strategies
    • STAAR

Impact Assessment

  • Track effectiveness of actions
  • Verify results

Risk Communication

  • Providing guidance on key issues
  • Relevant information for assessments
  • Buy-in for final decisions


James J. Rooney, CQE, CRE, PMP

James J. Rooney is the Director of Training Services for the Safety, Risk, and Compliance Division of ABS Consulting. Mr. Rooney has more than 30 years of experience in quality, risk assessment, and process safety management for the chemical process, pharmaceutical, petroleum, medical device, and nuclear power industries.

Mr. Rooney received his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from the University of Virginia, his master’s degree in nuclear engineering from the University of Tennessee (thesis and course work in risk analysis), and his master’s degree in business administration from the University of Tennessee. 

Jim is a Past Chair of the Board of Directors of the American Society for Quality (ASQ).  Jim is an ASQ Fellow and holds 10 ASQ certifications. He is an ASQ Fellow, a reviewer for Quality Progress magazine, a columnist for Six Sigma Forum magazine, and Associate Editor for The Journal for Quality and Participation.


EUCI Office Building Conference Center
4601 DTC Blvd, B-100
Denver, CO 80237

Nearby Hotels

Hyatt Regency Denver Tech Center
7800 E. Tufts Ave
Denver, CO 80237
Phone: 303-779-1234
0.4 miles away

Hilton Garden Inn Denver Tech Center
7675 E. Union Ave
Denver, CO 80237
Phone: 303-770-4200
0.6 miles away

Denver Marriott Tech Center
4900 S. Syracuse St
Denver, CO 80237
Phone: 303-779-1100
0.7 miles away

Hyatt Place Denver Tech Center
8300 E. Crescent Parkway
Greenwood Village, CO 80111
Phone: 303-804-0700
0.9 miles away



Event Standard RateAttendees

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