Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
November 2-3, 2016
Chicago, IL

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Overview

This course introduces probabilistic risk assessment history, PRA development, and nuclear risk assessment in nuclear power applications. One particular focus of this course is risk-informed performance-based applications that apply PRA to implement cost-effective improvements to plant operation, maintenance, and safety management. The course is designed for those who use PRA results and need to understand PRA uses, methods, and issues, but who may not directly develop PRA themselves. This course will give attendees a solid understanding of the history behind PRA, reasons for developing PRA, examples of key PRA applications, how PRAs are constructed, their assumptions and limits, methods of development, and issues associated with their use in nuclear power applications. Attendees will be exposed to many aspects of PRA, including event trees, fault trees, and data analysis; develop a simple PRA; and look at a complete analysis to review the details of complexity and PRA limitations. The course will address PRA types, associated initiating events, event sequences, event tree and fault tree top events, and risk-informed analysis, with nuclear industry applications. It will review the current ANS/ASME joint PRA risk-informed standards. The course will also address PRA use in facility design, operation, and maintenance. We will discuss the use of PRA in new plant licensing, developing new plant reliability assurance plans with PRA, and challenging PRA issues, including digital controls, equipment upgrades, and other legacy plant applications.

Learning Outcomes

  • Discuss PRA background and deterministic safety analysis
  • Describe the role of PRA in implementation of risk-informed applications
  • Relate PRA use to events like Fukushima
  • Identify simple PRA elements relating those to deterministic analysis
  • Interpret common PRA elements and standards
  • Explain PRA role as a tool assessing nuclear risks
  • Describe PRA role in new nuclear plant (10 CFR) Part 52, Combined Licensing
  • Analyze PRA limits
  • Examine likely directions for future PRA development

Credits

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EUCI has been accredited as an Authorized Provider by the International Association for Continuing Education and Training (IACET).  In obtaining this accreditation, EUCI has demonstrated that it  complies with the ANSI/IACET Standard which is recognized internationally as a standard of good practice. As a result of their Authorized Provider status, EUCI is authorized to offer IACET CEUs for its programs that qualify under the ANSI/IACET Standard.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.1 CEUs for this event.

Instructional Methods

This program will use PowerPoint Presentations, group discussions, as well as active participation.

Requirements for a Successful Completion of Program

Participants must sign in/out each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the course to be eligible for continuing education credit.

Agenda

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

8:00 – 8:30 a.m. :: Registration and Continental Breakfast

 

8:30 – 9:15 a.m. :: Risk Assessment Concepts and Nuclear Safety Background

Introduction to the fundamental concepts of risk assessment:

  • What is risk? (scenario, consequence, likelihood)
  • Approaches for assessing risk
  • Maximum credible accident
  • Design basis accident
  • Actuarial analysis
  • Probabilistic risk assessment

A brief history behind the use of PRA:

  • Development of Cold War weapons operations research
  • Power applications, including naval reactors
  • Wash-740 and Wash-1400: The Rasmussen Report
  • Three Mile Island accident, Chernobyl, Fukushima
  • Individual plant examinations: IPEs and IPEEEs
  • PRA Standards development
  • Risk-Informed Applications

 

9:15 – 10:00 a.m. :: Conventional Nuclear Plant Design

This session will cover traditional deterministic safety design and its limitations and is an introduction to PRA methods.

Deterministic analysis:

  • Design basis and design basis accidents (DBA)
  • Safety functions and systems
  • Safety analysis reports (SAR) and hazard assessments
  • Defense in depth (redundancy and barrier independence)

Risk analysis:

  • Early ways to perform risk-based analysis
  • New tool for design: PRA
  • Compliance with administrative controls
  • 34: Requirements for design
  • 59: “Changes, tests, and experiments”
  • Part 21: Requirements for commercial-grade equipment
  • 65: Maintenance rule

10:00 – 10:30 a.m. :: Networking Break

 

10:30 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. :: Basic PRA Techniques

This session will address basic PRA development, traditional use, its evolution from the plant’s safety design post­licensing, and the types of PRA used. The session will provide a basic understanding of PRA from a safety design and operation perspective.

  • Frequency vs. probability
  • Independent vs. dependent probability
  • Cut sets and quantification methods
  • Event trees
    • Initiating events:
      • Internal
      • External (fire, flood, seismic)
      • Categories of initiating events (TRANS, LOOPs, LOCAs, etc.)
        • Top events
        • Sequences
      • Event tree workshop

12:30 – 1:30 p.m. :: Group Luncheon

 

1:30 – 3:15 p.m. :: Basic PRA Techniques (continued)
  • Fault trees
    • Common fault tree symbols
    • Fault tree Boolean reduction
  • Fault tree workshop
  • Failure data
    • Failure modes, failure mechanisms, failure causes
    • Common cause failures
    • Human error
  • Safety system roles
    • Safety design
    • Internal/external events
    • PRA detail
    • Conventional safety analysis weaknesses
  • Electric power disturbances
  • Overemphasis on line break scenarios
  • Importance of operations problems: Common cause failures
  • Generating CDF workshop (a simple PRA)

3:15 – 3:30 p.m. :: Afternoon Break

 

3:30 – 4:00 p.m. :: Other Industries’ Applications of PRA

This session will discuss other industries’ approaches and issues, where they appear to be headed, and how they can benefit from using PRA. This general discussion intends to view other applications independent of nuclear bias so the group can decide on reasonable actions.

  • United Flight 232: Rotor disk failure
  • S. Navy submarine emergency blow capability failure
  • Federal Aviation Administration MSG-3 approach to internal events: Prevent single failure event chains
  • Space/NASA
  • Reactor plant design
    • Passive safety
    • New technology
    • Operating plants today
    • Partitions

 

4:00 – 5:00 p.m. :: PRA Applications for Nuclear Power Plants

This session will discuss how PRA can be used in risk-informed performance-based decision-making to support nuclear plant design, construction, and operation.

  • 65 Maintenance Rule
  • 69 Systems, Structures, and Components (SSC) Categorization
  • Expert judgment
  • NMSS uses
  • New designs and technology
  • Classify (risk rank) SSC; partition
  • Perform 50.59 reviews
    • Bounding analysis
    • Non-reviewed safety questions
    • Develop SSC special treatment requirements
  • Core damage frequency (CDF), large early release frequency (LERF), and consequence analysis (Level III PRA)
  • Risk assessment computer codes: CAFTA, RISKMAN, SAPHlRE, RELAP, MAAP
  • Risk monitors
  • NRC SPAR models
  • Significance determination process (SDP) and MSPl
  • Introduction to Common Risk-Informed Performance-Based Applications (RIPBAs):
    • RIPBA infrastructure development (building associated supporting plant relational databases that can be reviewed and verified)
    • Industry Initiative 4B – Risk-Managed Technical Specifications (RMTS) Programs (Applying NEI 06-09)
    • Industry Initiative 5B – Risk-Informed Surveillance Frequency (RI-SFCP) Control Programs (Applying NEI 04-10 and IEEE Standard 336), to include:
      • PRA Case Studies
      • Qualitative Risk Assessment
      • Deterministic Assessment
      • Instrument Drift Evaluation
    • 10 CFR 50.69 – Risk-Informed Graded Quality Assurance (RI-GQA) Programs (Applying NEI 00-04)
    • Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) Programs (e.g., for piping applying EPRI TR-112657)
    • Risk-Informed In-Service Testing (RI-IST) Programs
    • Risk-Informed Containment Integrated and Local Leak Rate Testing
    • Risk-Informed Fire Protection Programs (e.g., NFPA 805 Implementation)
    • GSI-191 (Containment Sump Screen/Strainer Issue) Resolution Support
    • Risk-Informed Plant Security Management Programs (including both Physical Security and Cyber-Security)
    • Risk-Informed Performance-Based Asset Management (RIPBAM) (e.g., Integrated Cost, Benefit, Risk, and Profitability Assessment)

Thursday, November 3, 2016

8:00 – 8:30 a.m. :: Continental Breakfast

 

8:30 – 9:30 a.m. :: Consensus Standards: ASME Standards for PRA Discussion

This session will discuss development of PRA standards by the ASME and ANS, addressing issues that make developing PRA standards difficult, as well as the necessity of their use. Areas that will be addressed include:

Part 1 – General Requirements for a Level 1 PRA, Including Large Early Release Frequency

Part 2 – Requirements for Internal Events At-Power PRA

Part 3 – Requirements for Internal Flood At-Power PRA

Part 4 – Requirements for Fire At-Power PRA

Part 5 – Requirements for Seismic Events At-Power PRA

Part 6 – Requirements for Screening and Conservative Analysis of Other External Hazards At-Power

Part 7 – Requirements for High Wind Events At-Power PRA

Part 8 – Requirements for External Flood Events At-Power PRA

Part 9 – Requirements for Other External Hazards At-Power PRA

Part 10 – Seismic Margin Assessment Requirements At-Power

Supplementary Topics:  PRA Maintenance, PRA Upgrades, Advisability of Peer Review, Shutdown Events PRA

 

 

9:30 – 10:00 a.m. :: Cost-Benefit of Risk-Informed Applications

This session will discuss the potential cost-benefit of risk-informed applications with some actual plant examples.

  • Industry Initiative 4B – Risk-Managed Technical Specifications (RMTS) Programs (Applying NEI 06-09)
  • Industry Initiative 5B – Risk-Informed Surveillance Frequency (RI-SFCP) Control Programs (Applying NEI 04-10 and IEEE Standard 336), to include:
    • PRA Case Studies
    • Qualitative Risk Assessment
    • Deterministic Assessment
    • Instrument Drift Evaluation
  • 10 CFR 50.69 – Risk-Informed Graded Quality Assurance (RI-GQA) Programs (Applying NEI 00-04)
  • Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection (RI-ISI) Programs (e.g., for piping applying EPRI TR-112657)
  • Risk-Informed In-Service Testing (RI-IST) Programs
  • Risk-Informed Containment Integrated and Local Leak Rate Testing
  • Risk-Informed Fire Protection Programs (e.g., NFPA 805 Implementation)
  • GSI-191 (Containment Sump Screen/Strainer Issue) Resolution Support
  • Risk-Informed Plant Security Management Programs (including both Physical Security and Cyber-Security)
  • Risk-Informed Performance-Based Asset Management (RIPBAM) (e.g., Integrated Cost, Benefit, Risk, and Profitability Assessment)

10:00 – 10:15 a.m. :: Morning Break

 

10:15 – 11:15 a.m. :: Challenges and Issues

There are actually two aspects of risk-informed operations using PRA.  The first is developing the PRA, and the second is evaluating the results for use in decision-making.  This leads to risk-informed analysis that applies PRA.

  • Design basis events (DBE) and beyond design basis events (BDBE)
  • Defense in depth
  • Uncertainties
  • Interpretations assessing risk
  • Common cause failures
  • Level of detail
  • Consensus codes: What are generally accepted practices, and how do they fit with traditional methods like design, technical specifications, and maintenance?
  • Future implications
  • Full-Scope All-Hazards All-Modes PRA

 

11:15 – 11:45 a.m. :: Detailed Discussion:  Reliability Assurance Programs

This section will include discussion on current PRA details as they relate to new plant construction design license issues, particularly how the design control document (DCD) operationally incorporates a reliability assurance program (RAP) based on PRA in design and operational components.  NUREG-0800 guidance for the COL (Part 52) tasks designers to develop the design RAP (“D-RAP”) will be discussed.  Although different from past practice, it remains unclear how PRA relates to the traditional Part 21 dedication, Part 50.59 changes and tests (unreviewed safety question), and Appendix A and B rules for expert opinion, SSC failure modes and causes, and managing the engineering design basis.

  • Full/partial PRA
  • Operationalizing PRA
  • Design control document
  • Designers versus operational perspective
  • Testing, measurement, and replacement (50.59); partition
  • SSC aging (50.49)
  • Operational-RAP (50.65)
  • Operationalized rule integration: Part 21, 50.34,50.49, 50.59, 50.65, 50.69
  • Commercial codes like ASME’s PTCs
  • Applying technical specifications
  • Root cause analysis
  • Procurement specifications

 

11:45 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. :: Special Topics/Outstanding Issues
  • Probabilistic performance assessment (PPA)
  • Framework for risk-informed regulation
  • RIPBAM application examples for managing cost-benefit-risk

12:30 p.m. :: Questions and Final Remarks

Instructor

James K. Liming, Sr. Reliability and Risk Management Consultant, ABS Consulting

Mr. James K. Liming is a Senior Reliability and Risk Management Consultant and Project Manager at ABS Consulting.  He has over 30 years of experience in managing and performing complex engineered facility reliability engineering, risk analysis, and operations and maintenance support projects.  Mr. Liming has a diverse, well‑balanced background, including hands‑on power plant operating and maintenance experience, as well as extensive analytical expertise.  He has served as project manager or project engineer on over 120 major industry and government reliability engineering and risk management projects worldwide.  He is a pioneering leader in the development and implementation of commercial nuclear power plant risk-informed applications, such as Risk-Managed Technical Specifications Programs (NEI Initiative 4b), Risk-Informed Surveillance Frequency Control Programs (NEI Initiative 5b), Risk-Informed Graded Quality Assurance Programs (10 CFR 50.69), Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection of Piping Programs, and Risk-Informed Containment Leak Rate Testing Programs.  In addition to providing direct analytical support for clients, Mr. Liming has also developed and presented many training workshops and technical papers on probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and reliability analysis applications tools and techniques.  He has authored or co‑authored over 140 publications, reports, and presentations on PRA and reliability analysis methods and applications.  He is a retired U. S. Navy Reserve Captain (O-6) and a former active duty nuclear submarine officer.  He holds a Bachelor of Science degree, specializing in computer-based mathematics, from the United States Naval Academy; and he holds a Master of Science degree in nuclear engineering, specializing in risk and reliability engineering methods, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Location

Courtyard by Marriott Chicago Downtown Magnificent Mile
165 East Ontario Street
Chicago, IL 60611

To reserve your room, please call 1-800-321-2211
Please indicate that you are with the EUCI group to receive the group rate.

Room Rate:

The room rate is $209.00 single or double plus applicable taxes.

Room Block Dates:

A room block has been reserved for the nights of November 1 – 2, 2016.

Rate Available Until:

Make your reservations prior to October 9, 2016. There are a limited number of rooms available at the conference rate. Please make your reservations early.

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