By - Jon Brown

Operational and Financial Risk Modeling for Renewable Energy
August 21-22, 2017 | Washington, DC

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Overview

With increased energy load support relying on renewable energy, new strategies must be undertaken to monitor both financial and operational risks utilities take for new renewable projects. In the upcoming Operational and Financial Risk Modeling for Renewable Energy course, we will examine strategies to measure these risks. Electricity demand is uncertain, but uncertainty can be bracketed within known parameters based on an analysis of past demand and including a projection for growth. We will determine effective combinations of variable and dispatchable power to match the uncertainty of renewable energy output with the uncertainty of electricity demand. The objective is to effectively decrease the risk taken on renewables, and maximize their efficiency with a smaller impact on the utility’s bottom line.

This program will be tailored to new users of any modeling software to demonstrate the power of simulation in analyzing operational uncertainty, and in determining the amount of debt a utility can safely load for a new project. We will cover all the common risk exposures that affect utilities, and leave you with a real understanding of the practical applications of these models and the actionable decisions that accompany them.

Learning Outcomes

  • Create a customized risk model and understand the practices associated with tailoring it to individual projects to assess their ultimate impact on the bottom line
  • Analyze the uncertainty of renewables matching demand, and solutions for using them and other generation sources to their optimum level
  • Evaluate effective risk mitigation techniques from a model outcome
  • Outline common risk exposures utilities should keep in mind when deciding on new renewable projects or redevelopment investments
  • Estimate minimum required cash flows and the ideal equity-to-debt ratio
  • Develop the skills to draw actionable conclusions from internal risk analyses and utilize the data effectively

Credits

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EUCI has been accredited as an Authorized Provider by the International Association for Continuing Education and Training (IACET).  In obtaining this accreditation, EUCI has demonstrated that it  complies with the ANSI/IACET Standard which is recognized internationally as a standard of good practice. As a result of their Authorized Provider status, EUCI is authorized to offer IACET CEUs for its programs that qualify under the ANSI/IACET Standard.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.0 CEUs for this event.

 

Requirements for Successful Completion of the Program

Participants must sign in/out each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the course to be eligible for continuing education credits.

Instructional Methods

PowerPoint presentations and classroom discussion will be used in this program.

Agenda

Monday, August 21, 2017

7:30 – 8:00 a.m. :: Registration and Continental Breakfast


8:00 – 9:30 a.m. :: Introduction to Risk and the Concepts of Risk Measurement

  • Fundamental shift in modeling renewables for utilities
  • Introduction to the concept of measuring risk
  • Overview of simulation software

9:30 – 10:00 a.m. :: Networking Break


10:00 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. :: Developing Customized Risk Models

  • In-depth process for setting up a simulation for a solar installation
  • In-depth process for setting up a simulation for a wind installation
  • Combining solar and wind developments into a utility’s energy portfolio
  • Breaking down the risk from each generation source and how they work together
  • Cover the interpretations of variations for a simulation output
  • Key concepts to apply this simulation process to any project

12:00 – 1:00 p.m. :: Group Luncheon


1:00 – 2:00 p.m. :: Measuring Operational Performance Risk

  • Best practices for tailoring models to an individual project
  • Constructing models to lead decision making in solving the mismatch of supply vs. demand in renewables
  • Analyzing the implications of the model’s outcome
  • Measuring excess and shortfalls in renewable energy
  • Quantifying the risk associated with renewables and electricity demand
  • Managing reliance on renewables at a utility scale operation

2:00 – 3:00 p.m. :: Utilizing Modeling for Portfolio Diversification

  • Quantifying electricity storage needs
  • Judging feasibility of various means of storage
  • Finding the most efficient use of renewables paired with base and variable load power
  • Building a model to measure diversification of renewables with base and variable load power
  • Determining the most efficient new project developments

3:00 – 3:30 p.m. :: Networking Break


3:30 – 5:00 p.m. :: Risk Mitigation Techniques, and Overcoming Uncertainties

  • Means of risk mitigation
  • The future of the classical utility model
  • Natural gas pricing and other base load forecasting through the use of modeling
  • Setting up a financial model incorporating renewables, natural gas, and other base load power sources
  • Analyzing how to use this information to decide on a new project

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

7:30 – 8:00 a.m. :: Continental Breakfast


8:00 – 9:00 a.m. :: Using Modeling for Price Forecasting

  • Constructing a model to measure overall utility performance
  • Determining the optimal debt load
  • Examining supportable cash flow to debt load, and how to determine this with diversified energy sources

9:00 – 10:00 a.m. :: Analyzing Overall Financial Performance in a Combined Portfolio

  • Determining the safe loading of debt for your combination of diversified power sources
  • Finding the ideal equity-to-debt ratio that can be supported
  • Measuring the financials in a diversified utility portfolio
  • Determining the most effective combination for meeting consumer demand
  • Evaluating which new projects can be supported in a utility’s portfolio

10:00 – 10:30 a.m. :: Networking Break


10:30 – 11:30 a.m. :: Practically Applying Data in Decision-Making

  • Using modeling for proactive asset management, and for measuring operational performance and financial projections
  • A macro look at external financial developments influencing utility projects
  • Outlining common risk exposures utilities must keep in mind

11:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. :: Course Summary and Wrap-Up

  • Summary of the major topics covered throughout the course
  • Feedback on other areas that could be covered in other sessions
  • Final questions on the program
  • Course wrap-up

Instructor

Roy Nersesian, Professor, Monmouth University

Roy Nersesian is a Professor with Monmouth University in the Management and Decision Sciences Department of the Leon Hess School of Business for over 30 years. He also taught for 13 years as an adjunct in the Center on Global Energy Policy at the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) at Columbia University in marine transportation, energy modeling, and global energy.

Professor Nersesian is a prolific author in his area of expertise. Just a few of his published works include Energy Economics (2016), Energy Risk Management (2013), Energy for the 21st Century (2007, 2010), Corporate Financial Risk Management (2004), and many more throughout his career.

He served in the U.S. Navy for 8 years on board nuclear powered submarines, and has held various positions working for corporations in the shipping field. He redirected his career when he joined the Monmouth faculty in 1985. He has an MBA degree from Harvard Business School and a B.S. degree in Physics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

Location

Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan National Airport
2799 Jefferson Davis Hwy
Arlington, VA 22202

To reserve your room, please call 1-703-418-1234
Please indicate that you are with the EUCI group to receive the group rate.

You can make a reservation online using this link

https://aws.passkey.com/go/euci082017 

 

 

Room Rate:

The room rate is $109.00 single or double plus applicable taxes.

Room Block Dates:

A room block has been reserved for the nights of August 21 – 22, 2017.

Rate Available Until:

Make your reservations prior to July 25, 2017. There are a limited number of rooms available at the conference rate. Please make your reservations early.

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