Integrated Resource Plan Design Fundamentals
August 29-30, 2016
Newport Beach, CA

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Overview

This course will provide a fundamental analytic, modeling and strategic skill primer for resource planning professionals and those charged with conducting long-term planning functions.  It will also provide a basic road map for those looking to familiarize themselves with planning strategies related to:

  • Renewable energy
  • GHG/carbon reduction
  • RPS-procurement
  • Demand response
  • Energy efficiency
  • Flexible resources
  • Distributed generation
  • Uncertainty and regulatory risk
  • Decision analysis
  • Portfolio optimization

Learning Outcomes

Attendees at this course will cover material that allows them to:

  • Examine available IRP modeling tools
  • Analyze and determine resource needs
  • Identify the impacts that GHG and other environmental measures have on portfolio selection
  • Evaluate the roles and contributions of demand response and energy efficiency properly
  • Review and compare deterministic and stochastic portfolio analyses
  • Apply optimization and decision analysis methodologies to drive best-fit, least cost resources to satisfy CPUC-identified portfolio needs
  • Assess reliability impacts of distributed generation (DG) on resource planning
  • Discuss techniques for forecasting future market conditions and commodity pricing
  • Create a framework to synthesize the data and analyses into a coherent, integrated enterprise planning document
  • Formulate a process and structure for internal and external stakeholder engagement to optimize a favorable outcome

Credits

AP_LogoEUCI has been accredited as an Authorized Provider by the International Association for Continuing Education and Training (IACET).  In obtaining this accreditation, EUCI has demonstrated that it  complies with the ANSI/IACET Standard which is recognized internationally as a standard of good practice. As a result of their Authorized Provider status, EUCI is authorized to offer IACET CEUs for its programs that qualify under the ANSI/IACET Standard.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.1 CEUs for this Course, 0.4 CEUs for the half day workshop and 0.8 CEUs for the full day workshop.

Requirements For Successful Completion Of Program

Participants must sign in/out each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the conference to be eligible for continuing education credit.

Instructional Methods

PowerPoint presentations and case studies will be used in program.

Agenda

Monday, August 29, 2016

8:00 – 8:30 a.m. :: Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:30 – 9:00 a.m. :: Introduction and Overview

9:00 – 10:15 a.m. :: Establishing the Framework
  • Determining Resource Needs
    • Peak capacity
    • Energy
    • RPS
    • Flexibility
  • Forecasting future market conditions
    • Load growth
    • Natural gas prices
    • Carbon prices
    • Environmental policies/regulations
      • Form(s) of CO2 constraints
      • Command/control decisions
      • Particulates
      • Siting
    • Power prices

10:15 – 10:30 a.m. :: Morning Break

10:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Establishing the Framework (continued)
  • Evaluating Resource Options
    • Energy efficiency
    • Demand response
    • Thermal “baseload” (i.e., flavor of gas)
    • Thermal peakers
      • Frame
      • Aeroderivative
      • Reciprocating engines
      • All gas or dual fuel
    • Renewable and variable energy resources
      • Wind
      • Solar
        • Utility scale
        • Distributed
      • Storage
      • Vehicle electrification
      • Other

12:15 – 1:30 p.m. :: Group Luncheon

1:15 – 3:15 p.m. :: Getting the Modeling Right
  • Modeling Tools
    • Analysis of alternatives
      • Commercial feasibility screening
      • Levelized cost (LCOE) screening
      • Deterministic scenarios and portfolio optimization analysis
      • Stochastic portfolio analysis
  • Analysis of Results
    • Key drivers of changes in LCOE portfolios
    • Portfolio risk comparisons with perspective
    • Scenarios
      • Low growth
      • High growth

3:15 – 3:30 p.m. :: Afternoon Break

3:30 – 5:30 p.m. :: Getting the Modeling Right (continued)
  • Decisions
    • Resource decisions driven by regulation(s)
    • Resource decisions influenced by key stakeholders
      • Shareholders
      • Utility commission
      • Intervenors
      • “Wall St” and bondholders
    • Non-resource decisions at a high level
  • Commitment to Action(s)
    • Resource decisions
    • Follow-on processes
      • Resource procurement RFPs
      • Etc.
    • Enterprise-wide plans for improvement

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

7:30 – 8:00 a.m. :: Continental Breakfast

8:00 – 9:30 a.m. :: IRP Modeling and Analytical Tools
  • Needs
    • Load forecasting
    • Resource adequacy
  • Deterministic portfolio analysis of scenarios
  • Stochastic portfolio analysis

9:30 – 9:45 a.m. :: Morning Break

9:45 – 11:45 a.m. :: Optimization and Decisions Analysis
  • Comparing Resource Options and Trade-offs to Determine Optimal Plans
    • Reliability and the impact of renewable energy resources
      • Weighing distribution resources against generation resource plans
      • Effects of DG penetration
      • Demand for and availability of grid support services
    • Uncertainty risk
    • Methodologies
    • IRP case studies
      • Determining optimal mix of resources
      • Analysis of options and trade-offs

11:45 a.m. :: Course Adjourns

Workshops

Tuesday, August 30, 2016
Synthesizing IRP with Calif SB 350

Wednesday, August 31, 2016
Uncertainty Risk-Based Resource Planning

Synthesizing IRP with Calif SB 350

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Overview

California, in its landmark SB-350 legislation, has embraced the importance of IRPs in helping the state better coordinate its manifold power-related initiatives.  While most utilities in the state have been engaged in very sophisticated planning efforts already (such as the long-term procurement planning process), just a relatively small percentage has been preparing a formal IRP.  The California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) charge to define and oversee the filing of IRPs in 2017 applies to the following power delivery enterprises: investor-owned utilities (IOUs), and all other load-serving entities (LSEs) that serve load within the investor-owned utility (IOU) service territories, including electric service providers (ESPs) and community choice aggregators (CCAs), as well as the small and multi-jurisdictional utilities (SMJUs).  Publicly-owned utilities — typically, municipal and special district agency utilities — are under a similar requirement to provide IRPs to the California Energy Commission (CEC).

This workshop will provide fundamental guidance to utilities and other LSEs that have not previously prepared IRPs.  In the second half of the session, a facilitated discussion among the utility and LSE attendees will discuss ways in which the Calif IRP can integrate the existing planning documentation already required by the state into the “conventional” IRP processes, methodologies, etc, previously addressed in the course itself.

Learning Outcomes

  • Review the required SB 350 pre-existing components for inclusion in the IRP
  • Coordination, prioritization and optimization of current state plans and policies that must be integrated with IRP
  • Coordinating baseline (conventional) IRP studies and processes with California SB350/IRP requirements

Agenda

12:30 – 1:00 p.m. :: Registration

1:00 – 2:45 p.m. :: Consideration of SB350 IRP Requirements
  • Identify mandated state plans and policy elements for inclusion in IRP
    • Utility-generated documentation
    • State regulatory-generated documentation
    • Third party-generated documentation
  • Review status of known IRP elements and processes
  • Interpret how utilities and LSEs need to manage the coordination, prioritization and optimization of state plans, policies and planning studies in the IRP
  • Estimate the staffing and budget that utilities and LSEs will need to expend annually to fulfill the California SB350/IRP requirements

2:45 – 3:00 p.m.:: Afternoon Break

3:00 – 5:00 p.m. :: Discussion of SB350 IRP Optimization Requirements and the Path Ahead
  • Facilitated discussion among utilities, load-serving entities and IRP content experts

5:00 p.m. :: Workshop Adjourns

Instructor

Gary Dorris, Ph.D., President, Ascend Analytics

Dr. Gary Dorris has been a pioneer of innovative solutions for energy planning and risk.  For the last dozen years, He has introduced utilities to new solutions to model and analyze planning portfolios.  His analytic innovations and expertise are sought by industry leaders including expert testimony in some of the most prominent resource planning and risk management proceedings in the country.  His company’s software solutions are used by 3 of the top 5 utilities in America and many COOPs and municipalities.  He has established industry standards for model validation, monetization of risk, portfolio selection, and performance metrics.  In 2001, Dr. Dorris won distinguished recognition from the IPE for contributions to the field of energy risk management.  He holds a Ph.D. in applied economics and finance from Cornell University and a BS in mechanical engineer and BA in economics with Magna Cum Laude distinction also from Cornell University.


Uncertainty Risk-Based Resource Planning

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Overview

The standard of prudency requires decision makers to “utilize all the available information a reasonable person would use at that time.”  Regulators in several states have mandated that risks, in addition to costs, be incorporated into the planning process.  However, translating this risk into actionable intelligence that simplifies and clearly articulates planning direction requires new approaches to incorporate into the planning process.  In today’s highly uncertain world with today’s advanced modeling tools, the planning construct has shifted toward establishing criteria for utilizing meaningful uncertainty to develop intelligent power planning portfolios.

This workshop will address approaches to monetize risk directly into the decision-making process, in addition to creating credibility in the underlying simulation of risk.  It will also demonstrate the difference in the value of a “best plan” under a deterministic case, versus the least cost and least risk plan across a broad set of future conditions.  Finally, it will provide electric resource planning professionals and regulators with specific tools to establish rigorous criteria for validating the simulation of uncertainty and its use in the planning process.

Learning Outcomes

The workshop will provide attendees an opportunity to learn of best practices in risk-based resource planning in an interactive setting involving case studies, exercises, discussions of the planning process, and shared perspective of impacts of alternative approaches. The workshop will cover issues such as:

  • Distinguishing different approaches of incorporating risk analysis into IRPs
  • Identifying changes in supply fundamentals in today’s and tomorrow’s power markets
  • Evaluating conservation versus generation programs
  • Defining risk factors versus fixed factors
  • Measuring planning portfolio risk premium
  • Identifying the limitations of scenario analysis
  • Evaluating concepts of expected value and probability setting
  • Building structural relationships into uncertainty analysis and applying utility assessment analysis to regulatory constraints
  • Recognizing and defining uncertainty scenarios
  • Using simulation to measure and value resource flexibility
  • Applying uses of stochastic principles to ensure robust plans in the face of multiple uncertainties
  • Applying planning with uncertainty in ISO’s and competitive power markets
  • Evaluating risk associated with Utility 2.0 business transformation

Agenda

7:30 – 8:00 a.m. :: Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:00 – 9:00 a.m. :: Utility Planning – Quick History and Evolution
  • Integrated utility and load duration curves
  • Nuclear and coal expansion, demand elasticity, and fixed vs variable cost
  • Production cost modeling
  • IRP’s and demand side programs
  • Scenario analysis and Rorschach diagrams
  • Relationship of risk-related analyses to production cost modeling
  • Least cost, least risk, efficient frontier
  • Revenue requirements and distribution of costs
  • ISO market dynamics and approaches to examine resource planning risk
  • New York’s Utility 2.0 and Hawaii Electric’s power supply transformation
9:00 – 9:45 a.m. ::  Introduction to New Concepts in Uncertainty Modeling
  • Comparison of Models: Structural vs Stochastic vs Hybrid
  • Mechanisms for modeling principal risk factors
  • Maintaining structural relationships
  • Accounting for future conditions
  • Simulation validation criteria
  • How to create transparency and credibility of simulations
  • Where to use uncertainty analysis and/or scenario planning
  • Other approaches to evaluating and managing risk and uncertainty

9:45 – 10:00 a.m. :: Morning Break

10:00 – 11:00 a.m. :: Introduction to New Concepts in Uncertainty Modeling (continued)

11:00 – 11:45 a.m. :: Recognizing the Value of General, but Relevant, Policy Impacts
  • Modeling carbon risk and related emissions costs
  • Modeling plant re-powering vs. retirement decisions for coal, oil and other fuel-sources
  • Modeling renewable impacts
  • Communicating “meaningful” uncertainty criteria
  • Addressing hourly and sub-hourly price volatility
  • Realizing value of flexibility with regard to ancillary services
  • Incorporating shifts demand and supply fundamentals

11:45 a.m. – 12:45 p.m. :: Group Luncheon

12:45 – 1:30 p.m. :: Interpreting Risk Assessment Analysis 
  • What is utility portfolio risk premium?
  • Understanding expected value
  • Probability trees
  • Risk factor identification
  • Distributional analysis of future costs/revenues
  • “Risk premium” valuation of portfolio risks
  • Analysis using “payoff diagrams”
  • Case study illustration of concepts
1:30 – 2:15 p.m. :: Anticipating Customer Migration and Customer Self-Generation
  • Demand changes coming from Hawaii and California — harbinger of changes to utility business model?
  • Competitive costs and regulatory considerations
  • Preserving the utility in the midst of customer moves for self-sufficiency
  • Grid defection and potential for grid death spiral
  • Cost and value of power as a public good versus private good
2:15 – 3:00 p.m. :: Quantifying Portfolio Value and Risks
  • Valuing flexible versus inflexible resources
  • Chronologically optimized energy and ancillary services modeling
  • Capturing the value of flexibility with market price simulations
  • Methods for benchmarking model results

3:00 – 3:15 p.m. :: Afternoon Break

3:15 – 4:00 p.m. :: Applying an Integrated Decision Analysis Framework
  • Understanding risk tradeoffs between portfolios
  • Identification of risk metrics
  • Asset valuation in resource selection
  • Visualization of portfolio risks: “efficient frontier” and others
  • Case study illustration of concept
4:00 – 5:00 p.m. :: Uses of Stochastic Principles to Ensure Robust Plans in the Face of Multiple Uncertainties 

Planners must balance the risks of load forecasting errors, delays in resource completion, changing regulations, and volatile market prices with the requirements to provide reliable power supplies in an economical manner. This segment will discuss the leading practices with respect to:

  • EPA regulations
  • Fuel prices
  • Renewable mandates
  • Retirements
  • Flexibility
  • Low market yields
  • ISO studies, policies and practices (where applicable)
  • Case study illustration of concept

 

Instructor

Gary Dorris, Ph.D., President, Ascend Analytics

Dr. Gary Dorris has been a pioneer of innovative solutions for energy planning and risk.  For the last dozen years, He has introduced utilities to new solutions to model and analyze planning portfolios.  His analytic innovations and expertise are sought by industry leaders including expert testimony in some of the most prominent resource planning and risk management proceedings in the country.  His company’s software solutions are used by 3 of the top 5 utilities in America and many COOPs and municipalities.  He has established industry standards for model validation, monetization of risk, portfolio selection, and performance metrics.  In 2001, Dr. Dorris won distinguished recognition from the IPE for contributions to the field of energy risk management.  He holds a Ph.D. in applied economics and finance from Cornell University and a BS in mechanical engineer and BA in economics with Magna Cum Laude distinction also from Cornell University.

Instructors

Gary Dorris, President, Ascend Analytics

Gary Dorris, Ph.D., President, Ascend Analytics has been a thought leader in energy modeling and risk analysis for 18 years. He has led the development of over a dozen resource plans and pioneered new techniques for risk based resource planning and portfolio selection.  Dr. Dorris has developed new techniques in risk management that integrate uncertainty around both the physical and financial aspects of a utilities portfolio.  His analytic innovations have extended toward the development of over a dozen software applications used by over 50 energy companies. In 2001, Dr. Dorris won distinguished recognition from the IPE for contributions to the field of energy risk management.

Phillip Popoff, Manager – Integrated Resource Planning, Puget Sound Energy (PSE)

Phillip J. Popoff is manager of integrated resource planning for Puget Sound Energy (PSE).  He has more than 20 years of experience in the energy industry.  He is responsible for Puget Sound Energy’s electric and natural gas utility IRPs, including supply-side and demand-side resource analysis.  Additionally, he is currently Chairman of the PNUCC’s (Pacific Northwest Utility Conference Committee) System Planning Committee and Chairman of the PNUCC/Northwest Gas Association’s Gas-Electric Planning Task Force.  Mr. Popoff has been with PSE for 18 years of his 20-plus years of experience in the energy industry.  Prior to joining PSE, he spent three years at the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission and two years at the Virginia State Corporation Commission.  He has B.S. and M.S. degrees in economics from the University of Wyoming, where he focused his studies on both utility and environmental economics. In addition, he completed the Professional Certificate program in Strategic Decisions and Risk Management at Stanford University in 2011 and attended the Executive Management Program at the University of Washington 1999 – 2000.

Location

Island Hotel Newport Beach
690 Newport Center Dr
Newport Beach, CA 92660

To reserve your room, please call 1-949-759-0808
Please indicate that you are with the EUCI group to receive the group rate.

Room Rate:

The room rate is $199.00 single or double plus applicable taxes.

Room Block Dates:

A room block has been reserved for the nights of August 28 – 30, 2016.

 

Rate Available Until:

Make your reservations prior to August 2, 2016. There are a limited number of rooms available at the conference rate. Please make your reservations early.

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