Long-Term Load Forecasting

Long-Term Load Forecasting

July 7-8, 2021 | Online :: Central Time

“I was very pleased with the information conveyed in this course.  The multitude of data that can improve a load forecast and how to implement them was eye-opening.” Sr. Engineer-Delivery System Planning, Alliant Energy

“Great introductory load forecasting course for beginners and planners.”  Senior Power Planner, Modesto Irrigation District

Load forecasting is a fundamental element in utility business operations and planning processes. During the past 120-plus years, load forecasting methodologies have evolved as the industry and related technologies advanced. Consequently, many classical methods are no longer suitable for addressing today’s challenges in the utility industry.

This course offers a comprehensive, updated, in-depth yet practical, scenario-based approach to long-term load forecasting. The content includes:

  • A review of the fundamental concepts and traditional forecasting methodologies
  • A statistical approach that leverages utility knowledge and practical experience
  • Scenario-based forecasting that helps better reflect the uncertainties of the unpredictable future
  • Several advanced and emerging challenges including renewable energy penetration, EV integration and shifting load composition

Learning Outcomes

Attendees will cover content, engage in discussions, and participate in exercises that will allow them to:

  • Review the fundamental concepts of load forecasting
  • Recognize the evolution of classical load forecasting methods 
  • Prepare and build regression models
  • Conduct ex poste forecasting to analyze the source of errors
  • Evaluate long-term, class-specific energy and load forecasts
  • Develop and apply scenario analyses
  • Conduct weather normalization
  • Incorporate real-life utility knowledge and judgment into forecasts
  • Manage how to identify data errors and perform data ‘cleansing’
  • Discuss emerging topics and the applicable problem-solving principles

Agenda

Wednesday, July 7, 2021 : Central Time

8:45 – 9:00 a.m.
Log In & Welcome

9:00 – 9:15 a.m.
Overview and Introductions

9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Course Timing

9:15 – 11:00 a.m. :: Introduction to Long-Term Load Forecasting

  • Why is LT load forecasting important
  • What differentiates LT from other types of load forecasting
  • Utility forecasting consumers and applications
    • System and resource planning
    • Strategic planning
    • Financial planning
  • Key concepts and terminologies
  • Toolkit

11:00 – 11:15 a.m. :: Morning Break                                                                            

11:15 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. :: Data Forecasting Blueprint

  • Mission
  • Process
  • Load history compilation
  • Essential forecasting inputs collection
  • Weather normalization
  • Capturing changes to traditional power system patterns
  • Organizing data and regression modeling

12:30 – 1:00 p.m. :: Break for Lunch

1:00 – 3:00 p.m. :: Statistical results

  • Understanding regression results and fine-tuning the model
  • Identifying outliers and interpreting anomalies
  • Adjustments to account for shifting policies and priorities
  • Interpreting deviations between historical and recent trends

3:00 – 3:15 p.m. :: Afternoon Break

3:15 – 5:00 p.m. :: Utility Knowledge and Informed Judgment

  • Applying utility baseline knowledge
  • Merging statistical results with utility knowledge and informed judgment
  • Identifying emerging grid developments, their contribution to evolving load patterns and devising modeling approaches
    • EE
    • PV
    • EV
    • End-use electrification
  • Dummy variables
  • Identifying, deriving and leveraging relevant data from disparate sources
  • Dealing with uncertainty
  • Reflecting regulatory mandates and stipulations
  • Diagnosing sources of forecast errors
  • Strategies for multiple scenario development and intra-year updates

5:00 p.m. :: Course Adjourns for the Day

Thursday, July 8, 2021 : Central Time

8:45 – 9:00 a.m.
Log In & Welcome

9:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.
Course Timing

9:00 – 10:00 a.m. :: Modeling Peak Forecasts and Load Shapes   

  • Influence of weather
  • Peak forecast and leveraging trends in historical load factors
  • Decomposing load into seasonally-sensitive elements
  • Disaggregating diurnal profiles

10:00 – 10:30 a.m. :: Forecasting Challenges and Emerging Topics

  • Housing mix
  • DER agglomeration
  • Rooftop and community solar
  • Electric vehicles
  • Sectoral and spatially granular load analysis
  • Covid-19, climate change, de-carbonization, other externalities

10:30 – 10:45 a.m. :: Morning Break

10:45 – 12:15 p.m. :: Forecasting DER Impacts on Load

  • Distributed PV
  • Energy efficiency
  • Electrical vehicles
  • Battery storage
  • Beneficial electrification

12:15 p.m. :: Course adjourns  

Workshop

PV And EV Load Forecasting In MS Excel

Thursday, July 8, 2021 : Central Time

Overview

This post-course workshop brings the long-term load forecasting methodologies introduced in the course to the most widely used business forecasting tool: spreadsheets. The workshop starts with an overview of various options available in the market, then zooms into spreadsheet operations.  Attendees will gain hands-on experience, through exercises, building models and generating load forecasts in spreadsheets – with a focus on distributed PV and electric vehicles.  This will be a working session.  Each workshop participant should have available a laptop with MS Excel 2007 (or newer version), including add-ins of Solver and Data Analysis. 

Learning Outcomes

  • Identify various software tools and solutions available in the market
  • Classify the use of different methods to develop forecasts in MS Excel
  • Distinguish the limitation of each method and when to pick which method
  • Examine how to build practical load forecasting models in MS Excel
  • Assess tips and tricks for MS Excel-based load forecasting
  • Discuss how to accomplish a load forecasting task with a team

Agenda

All Times Central

12:45 – 1:00 p.m.
Log In

1:00 – 1:15 p.m.
Overview & Introductions

1:15 – 2:45 p.m. :: Load Forecasting Tools

  • Software tools and solutions
  • Building load forecasting models 
  • Understanding the limitations
  • Why Excel ?
  • Building practical load forecasting models in MS Excel

2:45 – 3:00 p.m. :: Afternoon Break

3:00 – 4:45 p.m. :: Interactive Forecasting Exercises Using Excel

  • Distributed PV
  • Electric vehicles

4:45 p.m. :: Workshop Adjournment

Instructor

Arvind Jaggi, Economist and Forecaster, Electricity Markets & Utilities

Arvind Jaggi is an economist/forecaster who specializes in electricity market forecasting. Over his 15 years of experience in the industry, he has worked extensively in DER integration and its impact on small-area load forecasting. Dr. Jaggi has developed a framework to analyze load characteristics and shapes across multiple sectors (residential, commercial etc.) to assist system planning including dynamic load modeling, forecasting regional penetration of solar, CHP, energy efficiency, codes and standards, batteries, and other behind-the-meter resources, as well as their impact on grid-load. He earned his PhD in Economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Online Delivery

We will be using Microsoft Teams to facilitate your participation in the upcoming event. You do not need to have an existing Teams account in order to participate in the broadcast – the course will play in your browser and you will have the option of using a microphone to speak with the room and ask questions, or type any questions in via the chat window and our on-site representative will relay your question to the instructor.

  • IMPORTANT NOTE: After November 30 you will not be able to join a Teams meeting using Internet Explorer 11. Microsoft recommends downloading and installing the Teams app if possible. You may also use the Edge browser or Chrome.
  • You will receive a meeting invitation will include a link to join the meeting.
  • Separate meeting invitations will be sent for the morning and afternoon sessions of the course.
    • You will need to join the appropriate meeting at the appropriate time.
  • If you are using a microphone, please ensure that it is muted until such time as you need to ask a question.
  • The remote meeting connection will be open approximately 30 minutes before the start of the course. We encourage you to connect as early as possible in case you experience any unforeseen problems.

Register

Please Note: This event is being conducted entirely online. All attendees will connect and attend from their computer, one connection per purchase. For details please see our FAQ

If you are unable to attend at the scheduled date and time, we make recordings available to all registrants for three business days after the event

Event Standard RateAttendees
Single Connection - Long-Term Load ForecastingUS $ 1195.00
Pack of 5 connectionsUS $ 4,780.00
Pack of 10 ConnectionsUS $ 8,365.00
Pack of 20 ConnectionsUS $ 14,340.00
Call us at 303.770.8800 if you have any specific questions on the volume discounts
* all other discounts do not apply to license packs

This event has the following workshops:

PV And EV Load Forecasting In MS ExcelUS $ 495.00

By registering I indicate I agree with EUCI's privacy policy and understand I may receive emailed reports, articles, event invitations and other information related to products and services from EUCI and any of our business partners. I understand I may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the link included in emails.

Take advantage of these discounts!

  • Attend the Course and workshop and pay US $ 1,595.00 per attendee (save US $ 95.00 each)

Cancellation Policy

Your registration may be transferred to a member of your organization up to 24 hours in advance of the event. Cancellations must be received on or before June 04, 2021 in order to be refunded and will be subject to a US $195.00 processing fee per registrant. No refunds will be made after this date. Cancellations received after this date will create a credit of the tuition (less processing fee) good toward any other EUCI event. This credit will be good for six months from the cancellation date. In the event of non-attendance, all registration fees will be forfeited. In case of conference cancellation, EUCIs liability is limited to refund of the event registration fee only. For more information regarding administrative policies, such as complaints and refunds, please contact our offices at 303-770-8800

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CEUs

Credits

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EUCI has been accredited as an Authorized Provider by the International Association for Continuing Education and Training (IACET).  In obtaining this accreditation, EUCI has demonstrated that it  complies with the ANSI/IACET Standard which is recognized internationally as a standard of good practice. As a result of their Authorized Provider status, EUCI is authorized to offer IACET CEUs for its programs that qualify under the ANSI/IACET Standard.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.0 CEUs for this course and 0.4 CEUs for the workshop.

Requirements for Successful Completion of Program

Participants must log in each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the event to be eligible for continuing education credit.

Instructional Methods

Case studies, PowerPoint presentations, and panel discussions will be used in this program.

Who Should Attend

Utility planning, economic and finance personnel working in the following areas will derive benefits in attending:

  • Load forecasting
  • Integrated resource planning
  • Generation planning
  • Transmission and distribution planning
  • Demand side management (DSM), demand response (DR) and energy efficiency (EE)
  • Rate design
  • Financial planning
  • Operations
  • Analysts

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