Long Term Load Forecasting Fundamentals and Best Practices

Long Term Load Forecasting Fundamentals & Best Practices

May 9-10, 2023 | Online :: Central Time

“I was very pleased with the information conveyed in this course.  The multitude of data that can improve a load forecast and how to implement them was eye-opening.” – Sr. Engineer-Delivery System Planning, Alliant Energy

“Great introductory load forecasting course for beginners and planners.”  – Senior Power Planner, Modesto Irrigation District

“Interesting material and approach to future, long term forecasting. We’ll be looking to compare our methods with this so we may integrate and ensure the best results are achieved.” – General Engineer – Capacity Planning, PEPCO

“Paving for the future – energy load forecasting.” Senior Forecasting Specialist, Dairyland Power Coop

“Learned a plethora of concepts to take back and apply to my own models.” Modeling & Performance Analyst, CMEEC

“A high-level look into long term load forecasting which aims to improve procedures and data sources for the most accurate long term load forecasting possible.” Senior Engineer, PEPCO

“I really enjoyed this training. The instructor was knowledgeable and personable and the information was useful to my work.” Load Forecast Specialist, BC Hydro

“Great course with a very knowledgeable presenter I would recommend this course to anyone in the industry seeking to improve their knowledge in long-term forecasting.” Staff Engineer, El Paso Electric

Load forecasting is a fundamental element in utility business operations and planning processes. During the past 100-plus years, load forecasting methodologies have evolved as the industry and related technologies advanced. Consequently, many classical methods are no longer suitable in addressing today’s challenges in the utility industry.

This course offers a comprehensive and in-depth, yet practical, approach to long-term load forecasting. The content includes:

  • A review of the fundamental concepts and forecasting methodologies
  • A statistical approach that leverages utility knowledge and practical experience
  • Probabilistic forecasting methods that help better quantify the uncertainties of the unpredictable future
  • Approaches to emerging challenges, including growth in distributed generation and electric vehicle penetration

It brings together the key concepts and practical applications to solving both long-standing and emerging forecasting challenges, including real life examples.  Content is presented using clear language, spreadsheet format datasets, and simple tabular and graphical statistical output that is software agnostic.  

Learning Outcomes

Attendees will cover content and engage in discussions that will allow them to:

  • Review the fundamental concepts of load forecasting
  • Recognize the evolution of load forecasting methods
  • Consider data requirements and sources
  • Build and test potential regression-based forecasting models
  • Evaluate long-term energy and peak demand forecasts
  • Develop and apply scenario analyses
  • Conduct weather normalization and ex post forecasting to understand forecast variance
  • Incorporate real life utility knowledge and judgment into forecasts
  • Consider and address the adoption of electric vehicles, distributed generation, and other emerging technologies

Registration & Attendance Criteria

This course is open to utilities, power and energy industry operating companies (see above), software vendors, consumer groups, project developers and regulators only.  Registrations that do not meet this criteria – or that may be construed as a competitive conflict – will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis and may not qualify for attendance.  Any determination as to the fulfillment of a registration to attend this program shall reside solely with EUCI.  Questions re: the application of this restriction can be addressed to [email protected].

Agenda

Tuesday, May 9, 2023 : Central Time

8:45 – 9:00 a.m.
Log In and Welcome

12:15 – 1:00 p.m.
Break for Lunch

9:00 a.m. – 4:30 p.m.
Course Timing

9:00 – 9:20 a.m. :: Overview and Introductions

9:20 – 11:00 a.m. :: Introduction to Long-Term Load Forecasting

  • Why is forecasting important?
  • Utility applications
  • Time Horizons
  • Art and Science of forecasting
  • Principles of forecasting
  • Load forecasting terminology
  • Load forecasting process

11:00 – 11:15 a.m. :: Morning Break                                                                            

11:15 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Data Requirements and Sources

  • Utility data
  • Economic data
  • Other data and sources

12:15 – 1:00 p.m. :: Break for Lunch

1:00 – 1:45 p.m. :: Typical Forecast Model Derivation

  • Integrated system of equations
  • Typical explanatory variables

1:45 – 3:00 p.m. :: Regression Fundamentals & Model Development

  • Statistical results
  • Interpreting parameters and statistics
  • Data issues
  • Forecasting software

3:00 – 3:15 p.m. :: Afternoon Break

3:15 – 4:30 p.m. :: Illustrative Electric Power Industry Cases

4:30 p.m. :: Course Adjourns for the Day

 

Wednesday, May 10, 2023 : Central Time

8:45 – 9:00 a.m.
Log In & Welcome

9:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m.
Course Timing

9:00 – 10:00 a.m. :: Utility Knowledge and Informed Judgment

  • Utility knowledge
  • Informed judgment
  • Controlling for Utility Programs
  • Dummy variables

10:00 – 10:30 a.m. :: Addressing Uncertainty

  • Probabilistic forecasting
  • Scenario-based approaches
  • What’s useful to the downstream planning study?
  • Extreme events

10:30 – 10:45 a.m. :: Morning Break

10:45 – 11:30 a.m. :: Weather-normalization

  • Purpose of weather-normalization
  • Normalization methodologies
  • What weather is “normal”?
  • Peak demand normalization issues
  • Exercise: real life examples

11:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Challenges and Emerging Topics

  • Data, data, data
  • Rooftop solar
  • Electric vehicles

12:15 p.m. :: Course adjourns  

Instructor

Jonathan Nunes is Senior Economist in the Energy Practice at nFront.  He has more than 25 years of experience in providing consulting services to the electric utility industry, primarily in the areas of power supply resource planning, economic analysis, and statistical analysis. He has led numerous power supply planning efforts, including integrated resource plans, evaluations of supply- and demand-side energy resources, development of demand-side management programs, and feasibility studies that supported bond financing. He has also been responsible for numerous load forecasts and load analytics studies for electric utilities for use in power supply and delivery facilities planning and ratemaking.  Prior to joining nFront Consulting, Mr. Nunes was a senior consultant at R. W. Beck, Inc. and its successor companies, SAIC and Leidos Engineering, Inc., for more than 20 years.

Online Delivery

We will be using Microsoft Teams to facilitate your participation in the upcoming event. You do not need to have an existing Teams account in order to participate in the broadcast – the course will play in your browser and you will have the option of using a microphone to speak with the room and ask questions, or type any questions in via the chat window and our on-site representative will relay your question to the instructor.

  • IMPORTANT NOTE: After November 30 you will not be able to join a Teams meeting using Internet Explorer 11. Microsoft recommends downloading and installing the Teams app if possible. You may also use the Edge browser or Chrome.
  • You will receive a meeting invitation will include a link to join the meeting.
  • Separate meeting invitations will be sent for the morning and afternoon sessions of the course.
    • You will need to join the appropriate meeting at the appropriate time.
  • If you are using a microphone, please ensure that it is muted until such time as you need to ask a question.
  • The remote meeting connection will be open approximately 30 minutes before the start of the course. We encourage you to connect as early as possible in case you experience any unforeseen problems.

Register

Please Note: This event is being conducted entirely online. All attendees will connect and attend from their computer, one connection per purchase. For details please see our FAQ

If you are unable to attend at the scheduled date and time, we make recordings available to all registrants for three business days after the event

REGISTER NOW FOR THIS EVENT:

Long Term Load Forecasting Fundamentals & Best Practices

May 9-10, 2023 | Online
Individual attendee(s) - $ 1295.00 each

Volume pricing also available

Individual attendee tickets can be mixed with ticket packs for complete flexibility

Pack of 5 attendees - $ 5,180.00 (20% discount)
Pack of 10 attendees - $ 9,065.00 (30% discount)
Pack of 20 attendees - $ 15,540.00 (40% discount)

Your registration may be transferred to a member of your organization up to 24 hours in advance of the event. Cancellations must be received on or before April 04, 2023 in order to be refunded and will be subject to a US $195.00 processing fee per registrant. No refunds will be made after this date. Cancellations received after this date will create a credit of the tuition (less processing fee) good toward any other EUCI event. This credit will be good for six months from the cancellation date. In the event of non-attendance, all registration fees will be forfeited. In case of conference cancellation, EUCIs liability is limited to refund of the event registration fee only. For more information regarding administrative policies, such as complaints and refunds, please contact our offices at 303-770-8800

CEUs

Credits

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EUCI is accredited by the International Accreditors for Continuing Education and Training (IACET) and offers IACET CEUs for its learning events that comply with the ANSI/IACET Continuing Education and Training Standard. IACET is recognized internationally as a standard development organization and accrediting body that promotes quality of continuing education and training.

EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.0 CEUs for this course.

Requirements for Successful Completion of Program

Participants must log in each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the event to be eligible for continuing education credit.

Instructional Methods

Case studies, PowerPoint presentations, and panel discussions will be used in this program.


Upon successful completion of this event, program participants interested in receiving CPE credits will receive a certificate of completion.

Course CPE Credits: 11.5
There is no prerequisite for this Course.
Program field of study: Specialized Knowledge
Program Level: Basic
Delivery Method: Group Internet Based
Advanced Preparation: None

CpeEUCI is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its web site: www.nasbaregistry.org

 

Who Should Attend

Utility planning, economic and finance personnel working in the following areas will derive benefits in attending:

  • Load forecasting
  • Integrated resource planning
  • Generation planning
  • Transmission and distribution planning
  • Demand-side management (DSM), demand response (DR) and energy efficiency (EE)
  • Rate design
  • Financial planning
  • Operations
  • Analysts

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