Utilities and other power organizations nowadays are caught in a crossfire of patterns and trends that often run counter to what seemed incontrovertible fact just a few years ago. Other perplexing conditions are present that seem difficult to gauge: changes in the mix of supply and demand side resources, the impact of technology on the grid and access it allows to system and customer data, dramatic shifts in commodity prices, the emergence of intermittent and variable resources, flat to declining load growth, and so on.
Trend analysis and other traditional methodologies cannot properly capture these unstable conditions. The problem is largely due to the inaccurate, unexplainable and indefensible forecasts generated from the forecasting practices in the pre-computer era. Thankfully, though, new forecasting methods have been developed that take account of behavioral and technological changes affecting electricity use.
This course offers an introduction to forecasting principles, practices, and their applications in the utility industry, such as demand forecasting, renewable generation forecasting, and price forecasting — the essential tools for making sense of today’s power environment and delivering proper guidance for industry decision-makers. It will be loaded with examples and illustrations that translate these methodologies into the corollary utility practices.
- Examine and review the concept of predictability
- Recognize how to describe a forecasting process using formal and rigorous terminologies
- Identify the basic forecasting concepts, such as signal and noise
- Recognize the practical value of forecast combination
- Apply diffusion of innovation principle in long term forecasting
- Discuss the do’s and don’ts in judgmental forecasting
- Relate how to evaluate forecasts and forecasting systems
- Distinguish the pros and cons of commonly used univariate models, multivariate models and machine learning techniques
- Define the general methodologies for
- Short-term and long-term electric load forecasting
- Gas demand forecasting
- Wind and solar power forecasting
- Gas and electricity price forecasting
EUCI has been accredited as an Authorized Provider by the International Association for Continuing Education and Training (IACET). In obtaining this accreditation, EUCI has demonstrated that it complies with the ANSI/IACET Standard which is recognized internationally as a standard of good practice. As a result of their Authorized Provider status, EUCI is authorized to offer IACET CEUs for its programs that qualify under the ANSI/IACET Standard.
EUCI is authorized by IACET to offer 1.0 CEUs for this event.
Requirements For Successful Completion Of Program
Participants must sign in/out each day and be in attendance for the entirety of the course to be eligible for any continuing education credit.
PowerPoint presentations, case studies, and workshop exercises will be used in this program.
Wednesday, May 9, 2018
7:45 – 8:15 a.m. :: Registration and Continental Breakfast
8:15 – 10:15 a.m. :: Forecasting Principles
- Predictable or not?
- Forecasting terminologies
- Signal, noise and tradeoff
- Forecast combination
- Diffusion of innovation
- Judgmental forecasting
10:15 – 10:30 a.m. :: Morning Break
10:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. :: Forecasting Practices
- Forecast evaluation
- Univariate models
- Multivariate models
- Machine learning techniques
12:15 – 1:30 p.m. :: Group Luncheon
1:30 – 3: 15 p.m. :: Electricity Demand Forecasting
- Driving factors
- Short-term load forecasting
- Long-term load forecasting
3:15 – 3:30 p.m. :: Networking Break
3:30 – 4:15 p.m. :: Gas Demand Forecasting
- Driving factors
4:15 – 5:00 p.m. :: Demonstration
5:00 p.m. :: Course Adjourns for the Day
Wednesday, May 10, 2018
8:00 – 8:30 a.m. :: Continental Breakfast
8:30 – 10:00 a.m. :: Renewable Generation Forecasting
- Wind power forecasting
- Solar power forecasting
10:00 – 10:15 a.m. :: Morning Break
10:15 – 11:30 a.m. :: Price Forecasting
- Gas price forecasting
- Electricity price forecasting
11:30 – 11:45 a.m. :: Summary
11:45 a.m. :: Adjournment
Tao Hong, Director of BigDEAL (Big Data Energy Analytics Laboratory), University of North Carolina at Charlotte and Chief Data Scientist, Hong Analytics
Dr. Tao Hong is Associate Professor and Research Director of Systems Engineering and Engineering Management Department, Director of BigDEAL (Big Data Energy Analytics Laboratory), NCEMC Faculty Fellow of Energy Analytics, and associate of Energy Production and Infrastructure Center at University of North Carolina at Charlotte. He is the Founding Chair of IEEE Working Group on Energy Forecasting, Director at Large of International Institute of Forecasters, General Chair of Global Energy Forecasting Competition (gefcom.org), and author of the blog Energy Forecasting (blog.drhongtao.com). Dr. Hong received his B.Eng. in Automation from Tsinghua University in Beijing and his PhD with co-majors in Operations Research and Electrical Engineering from North Carolina State University.
Hyatt Regency Houston
1200 Louisiana St, Houston, TX 77002
To reserve your room, please call (713) 654-1234
Please indicate that you are with the EUCI group to receive the group rate.
The room rate is $189 single or double plus applicable taxes.
Room Block Dates:
A room block has been reserved for the nights of May 8 – 9, 2018.
Rate Available Until:
Make your reservations prior to April 8, 2018. There are a limited number of rooms available at the conference rate. Please make your reservations early.
Please Note: Confirmed speakers do not need to register and are encouraged to participate in all sessions of the event. If you are a speaker and have any questions please contact our offices at 1.303.770.8800
|Event||Early Bird Before |
Friday, April 20, 2018
|Introduction to Forecasting for Utility/Power Industry Professionals||US $ 1295.00||US $ 1495.00|
Register 3 Send 4th Free!
Any organization wishing to send multiple attendees to these conferences may send 1 FREE for every 3 delegates registered. Please note that all registrations must be made at the same time to qualify.
Your registration may be transferred to a member of your organization up to 24 hours in advance of the event. Cancellations must be received on or before April 06, 2018 in order to be refunded and will be subject to a US $195.00 processing fee per registrant. No refunds will be made after this date. Cancellations received after this date will create a credit of the tuition (less processing fee) good toward any other EUCI event. This credit will be good for six months from the cancellation date. In the event of non-attendance, all registration fees will be forfeited. In case of conference cancellation, EUCIs liability is limited to refund of the event registration fee only. For more information regarding administrative policies, such as complaints and refunds, please contact our offices at 303-770-8800